{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61a8800c-5e0d-4f50-9a0d-6abc8878acda", "symbol": "WBD", "name": "Warner Bros Discovery Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.671, "architecture_energy": 25.776, "architecture_maturity": 30.088, "architecture_confidence": 75.68, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.94, "rotation_up": 21.12, "upward_expansion": 2.21, "deceleration": 57.2, "rotation_down": 42.65, "downward_expansion": 73.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.449333, 26.480909, 26.647667, 26.859591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.78, "trend_reference": 27.196667, "distance_from_trend": -0.015321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.656122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.827223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.561787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021199, "excess_performance": -0.208652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.827223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150404, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021199, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.18256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105835799, "relative_activity": 1.019461, "balance": 1.18256, "dry_up": 1.25166, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03783, "annualized_volatility": 0.132785, "from_high_reference": -0.107333, "from_low_reference": 1.488848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.196667, "fair_value_reference": 14.656122, "structural_low": 25.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.023342, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.033265, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.325933, "worst_return": -0.201631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.116382, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.109219, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.478428, "worst_return": -0.285127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005855, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.104508, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.235858, "worst_return": -0.412394, "sufficient": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.606158, "energy": 24.787613, "activity_lines": [ 26.655333, 26.657455, 26.82881, 27.065968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.77, "volume": 144184837, "typical_volume": 106371521.35, "trend": 27.3405, "fair_value": 14.493237, "relative_strength": -1.345774, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.033741, "energy": 37.660065, "activity_lines": [ 26.386667, 26.486182, 26.711286, 26.958129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.3, "volume": 126697454, "typical_volume": 106998516.6, "trend": 27.266833, "fair_value": 14.572276, "relative_strength": -0.613288, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.495818, "energy": 31.373213, "activity_lines": [ 26.323333, 26.433273, 26.654619, 26.891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.78, "volume": 105835799, "typical_volume": 103815490.5, "trend": 27.196667, "fair_value": 14.656122, "relative_strength": -4.561787, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.671158, "energy": 25.776298, "activity_lines": [ 26.449333, 26.480909, 26.647667, 26.859591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }