{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61b3e9f7-bad1-423d-a38d-34650651c9a7", "symbol": "XRMU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.705, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.872, "architecture_energy": 59.183, "architecture_maturity": 65.288, "architecture_confidence": 63.933, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.39, "rotation_up": 52.28, "upward_expansion": 79.96, "deceleration": 69.62, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 8.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.805666, 65.471272, 64.85069, 63.475333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 67.735001, "trend_reference": 61.9245, "distance_from_trend": 0.093832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.575196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339293, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.603387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140896, "excess_performance": 0.089661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007966, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036034, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192066, "relative_activity": 3.321901, "balance": 0.390212, "dry_up": 3.945067, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020936, "annualized_volatility": 0.141811, "from_high_reference": -0.001989, "from_low_reference": 0.239433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.9245, "fair_value_reference": 50.575196, "structural_low": 54.650002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012419, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": 0.00724, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.068398, "worst_return": -0.061243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.050645, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001296, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.14592, "worst_return": -0.07522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07276, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028957, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.170163, "worst_return": -0.164503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 61.369677, "activity_lines": [ 65.238332, 65.176362, 63.654737, 62.419655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.089996, "volume": 499714, "typical_volume": 39717.7, "trend": 61.36, "fair_value": 50.035068, "relative_strength": 2.434584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.130556, "energy": 56.459483, "activity_lines": [ 65.238997, 65.183544, 63.958927, 62.672515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.724998, "volume": 129140, "typical_volume": 45726.8, "trend": 61.513666, "fair_value": 50.205517, "relative_strength": 0.574127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.601925, "energy": 49.922396, "activity_lines": [ 65.096997, 65.10718, 64.19938, 62.889612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.540001, "volume": 91465, "typical_volume": 48549.55, "trend": 61.682666, "fair_value": 50.377888, "relative_strength": -0.934962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.461272, "energy": 42.282265, "activity_lines": [ 64.933998, 64.993544, 64.390618, 63.084859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.735001, "volume": 192066, "typical_volume": 57818.1, "trend": 61.9245, "fair_value": 50.575196, "relative_strength": 3.603387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.871665, "energy": 59.182634, "activity_lines": [ 65.805666, 65.471272, 64.85069, 63.475333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }