{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61ba300e-fe28-4299-be89-9c5b94d34c5b", "symbol": "MAHEPC", "name": "Mahindra EPC Irrigation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.134, "architecture_energy": 60.396, "architecture_maturity": 7.212, "architecture_confidence": 84.929, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 32.6, "rotation_down": 69.32, "downward_expansion": 85.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.416001, 111.800728, 113.822143, 114.307248 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 108.220001, "trend_reference": 115.762334, "distance_from_trend": -0.065154, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 129.714295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.969076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106285, "excess_performance": -0.062575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125778, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393203, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162361, "relative_activity": 0.909514, "balance": 0.393203, "dry_up": 1.475049, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070298, "annualized_volatility": 0.400026, "from_high_reference": -0.415406, "from_low_reference": 0.177456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.762334, "fair_value_reference": 129.714295, "structural_low": 91.910004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.010741, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011258, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.18646, "worst_return": -0.154138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003871, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006013, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.246344, "worst_return": -0.183121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018112, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026912, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.335624, "worst_return": -0.180797, "sufficient": true 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174553.75, "trend": 118.041666, "fair_value": 129.806218, "relative_strength": -11.837042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.459276, "energy": 14.329637, "activity_lines": [ 116.964001, 116.323819, 116.063905, 116.34056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.379997, "volume": 233253, "typical_volume": 177785.8, "trend": 117.307, "fair_value": 129.805449, "relative_strength": -14.202807, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.492957, "energy": 41.016541, "activity_lines": [ 112.841333, 114.381455, 115.152667, 115.523678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.660004, "volume": 194634, "typical_volume": 181657.85, "trend": 116.427667, "fair_value": 129.802308, "relative_strength": -14.922814, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.988113, "energy": 54.60102, "activity_lines": [ 109.886667, 112.853092, 114.400382, 114.836775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.220001, "volume": 162361, "typical_volume": 178514.1, "trend": 115.762334, "fair_value": 129.714295, "relative_strength": -13.969076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.133578, "energy": 60.395564, "activity_lines": [ 108.416001, 111.800728, 113.822143, 114.307248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }