{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61bf5a1b-4665-432d-995d-ee18b4d0a565", "symbol": "5906", "name": "Tainan Enterprise (Cayman) Co., Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.047, "architecture_energy": 45.267, "architecture_maturity": 47.923, "architecture_confidence": 63.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.19, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 41.92, "downward_expansion": 66.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.13, 38.990909, 41.521905, 43.444731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.799999, "trend_reference": 45.945, "distance_from_trend": -0.199042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.564964, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.312984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.167903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.256566, "excess_performance": -0.697938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.312984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157152, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.461679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090903, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.114541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9853, "relative_activity": 0.267174, "balance": 0.114541, "dry_up": 0.355451, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083926, "annualized_volatility": 0.308568, "from_high_reference": -0.348673, "from_low_reference": 0.033708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.945, "fair_value_reference": 53.564964, "structural_low": 35.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007828, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005677, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.360714, "worst_return": -0.152632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041388, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.031638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.033566, "worst_return": -0.206579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.143133, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.169262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.498831, "worst_return": -0.199609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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47.255454, 48.007619, 48.767312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 40.900002, "volume": 202000, "typical_volume": 49451.65, "trend": 49.343334, "fair_value": 54.732673, "relative_strength": -47.520667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.410812, "energy": 70.714623, "activity_lines": [ 44.776667, 45.990909, 47.249048, 48.200861 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 38.0, "volume": 296260, "typical_volume": 45533.3, "trend": 48.886667, "fair_value": 54.585635, "relative_strength": -48.392105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.442749, "energy": 88.962371, "activity_lines": [ 42.28, 44.346364, 46.267143, 47.469033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.0, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 47032.8, "trend": 48.416667, "fair_value": 54.423846, "relative_strength": -50.065751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"trend": 47.13, "fair_value": 53.868002, "relative_strength": -42.299164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.491638, "energy": 85.700852, "activity_lines": [ 38.16, 39.891818, 42.972381, 44.839785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.25, "volume": 21231, "typical_volume": 41289.6, "trend": 46.808334, "fair_value": 53.740158, "relative_strength": -37.704199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.485819, "energy": 57.414395, "activity_lines": [ 39.243333, 39.801818, 42.611905, 44.46043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 14050, "typical_volume": 37074.45, "trend": 46.435, "fair_value": 53.635013, "relative_strength": -39.228233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.643941, "energy": 41.147042, "activity_lines": [ 39.926667, 39.698182, 42.237857, 44.066344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 36.799999, "volume": 9853, "typical_volume": 36878.55, "trend": 45.945, "fair_value": 53.564964, "relative_strength": -46.167903, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.046517, "energy": 45.266927, "activity_lines": [ 39.13, 38.990909, 41.521905, 43.444731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }