{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61bffb1e-29e4-4462-a94c-b54bf93f538c", "symbol": "BEARDSELL", "name": "Beardsell Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.993, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.943, "architecture_energy": 18.709, "architecture_maturity": 37.313, "architecture_confidence": 78.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.63, "rotation_up": 19.42, "upward_expansion": 51.15, "deceleration": 91.7, "rotation_down": 34.36, "downward_expansion": 19.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.312667, 27.978364, 27.637714, 27.059721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.24, "trend_reference": 26.713667, "distance_from_trend": 0.019703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.919038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.546301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04152, "excess_performance": 0.002189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015948, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.993993, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71278, "relative_activity": 0.859374, "balance": 0.993993, "dry_up": 0.819985, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085734, "annualized_volatility": 0.40658, "from_high_reference": -0.2943, "from_low_reference": 0.360639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.713667, "fair_value_reference": 34.919038, "structural_low": 20.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031252, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.007063, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.227323, "worst_return": -0.182609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001133, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.613658, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.357143, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.284812, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.593466, "worst_return": -0.217318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.089047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053423, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014525, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.924665, "volume": 81072, "typical_volume": 713553.1, "trend": 24.888375, "fair_value": 16.381898, "relative_strength": 5.545326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.15951, "energy": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.145314, "energy": 43.224896, "activity_lines": [ 29.101334, 28.57, 27.318572, 26.956215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.540001, "volume": 105334, "typical_volume": 92703.1, "trend": 26.986334, "fair_value": 34.944695, "relative_strength": -3.347437, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.188396, "energy": 31.96888, "activity_lines": [ 28.586001, 28.501273, 27.437667, 26.986925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.639999, "volume": 52265, "typical_volume": 91704.9, "trend": 26.865667, "fair_value": 34.934977, "relative_strength": -0.495012, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.073515, "energy": 18.25042, "activity_lines": [ 28.119333, 28.435818, 27.556095, 27.029097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.85, "volume": 43167, "typical_volume": 85512.4, "trend": 26.749667, "fair_value": 34.924009, "relative_strength": -5.468805, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.651411, "energy": 18.9737, "activity_lines": [ 27.509333, 28.195091, 27.58681, 27.028086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.24, "volume": 71278, "typical_volume": 82941.75, "trend": 26.713667, "fair_value": 34.919038, "relative_strength": -4.546301, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.943028, "energy": 18.709144, "activity_lines": [ 27.312667, 27.978364, 27.637714, 27.059721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }