{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61c6f629-d00c-45c2-a60e-c2af27496cc7", "symbol": "CGO", "name": "Cogeco Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.047, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.276, "architecture_energy": 74.542, "architecture_maturity": 19.767, "architecture_confidence": 82.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.42, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 38.65, "rotation_down": 78.01, "downward_expansion": 94.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.395102, 60.66316, 62.046712, 63.45462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 58.970001, "trend_reference": 65.311079, "distance_from_trend": -0.09709, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.520087, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.479669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1462, "excess_performance": -0.266621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110300, "relative_activity": 1.138111, "balance": 0.804808, "dry_up": 1.587989, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043009, "annualized_volatility": 0.249093, "from_high_reference": -0.222337, "from_low_reference": 0.11922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.311079, "fair_value_reference": 54.520087, "structural_low": 57.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.003131, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.015968, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.181442, "worst_return": -0.122751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030056, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005974, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.314584, "worst_return": -0.134176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091144, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081857, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.276575, "worst_return": -0.195597, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -62.37939, "energy": 68.680172, "activity_lines": [ 62.034004, 62.938447, 63.594545, 64.759616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.273487, "volume": 168400, "typical_volume": 88975.0, "trend": 65.599255, "fair_value": 54.314548, "relative_strength": -14.305698, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.751689, "energy": 78.113573, "activity_lines": [ 61.026972, 62.189392, 63.065656, 64.348234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.240002, "volume": 198900, "typical_volume": 94540.0, "trend": 65.461758, "fair_value": 54.416352, "relative_strength": -15.102147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.428306, "energy": 81.520179, "activity_lines": [ 59.957214, 61.299821, 62.494118, 63.873443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.970001, "volume": 110300, "typical_volume": 96915.0, "trend": 65.311079, "fair_value": 54.520087, "relative_strength": -16.479669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.276147, "energy": 74.541532, "activity_lines": [ 59.395102, 60.66316, 62.046712, 63.45462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }