{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61c8935a-ee53-4099-97c8-ffad9fb985c2", "symbol": "CDR", "name": "Codrus Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.451, "architecture_energy": 41.94, "architecture_maturity": 22.978, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.94, "rotation_up": 69.16, "upward_expansion": 41.73, "deceleration": 33.46, "rotation_down": 16.94, "downward_expansion": 19.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.027933, 0.025436, 0.0246, 0.024955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.034, "trend_reference": 0.0259, "distance_from_trend": 0.312741, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.033785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.179845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133333, "excess_performance": 0.069628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.312741, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.363006, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.321798, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.347887, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.827759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19369413, "relative_activity": 13.022828, "balance": 11.827759, "dry_up": 3.562488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113122, "annualized_volatility": 0.899028, "from_high_reference": -0.227273, "from_low_reference": 1.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0259, "fair_value_reference": 0.033785, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.103526, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.433333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.447918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.178571, "worst_return": -0.518519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.573333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.539843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.142857, "worst_return": -0.703704, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 950000, "typical_volume": 751498.6, "trend": 0.024767, "fair_value": 0.034824, "relative_strength": -1.511119, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.581326, "energy": 35.135733, "activity_lines": [ 0.0222, 0.022491, 0.02331, 0.024318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 748240, "typical_volume": 727135.95, "trend": 0.025033, "fair_value": 0.034458, "relative_strength": 3.316585, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.226097, "energy": 18.407107, "activity_lines": [ 0.023267, 0.022891, 0.023414, 0.024333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 126917, "typical_volume": 561452.55, "trend": 0.025333, "fair_value": 0.03408, "relative_strength": 5.078565, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.170402, "energy": 16.459995, "activity_lines": [ 0.0244, 0.023473, 0.023629, 0.024396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.034, "volume": 19369413, "typical_volume": 1487343.05, "trend": 0.0259, "fair_value": 0.033785, "relative_strength": 32.179845, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.450884, "energy": 41.940129, "activity_lines": [ 0.027933, 0.025436, 0.0246, 0.024955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }