{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61d15a2c-b677-4b56-910d-283da393f007", "symbol": "FRTY", "name": "THE ALGER ETF TRUST MID CAP 40 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.104, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.585, "architecture_energy": 21.88, "architecture_maturity": 54.562, "architecture_confidence": 77.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.0, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 54.18, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 17.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.582653, 22.840525, 22.611416, 22.08902 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.18, "trend_reference": 21.58339, "distance_from_trend": 0.073974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.928101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292942, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.752149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124697, "excess_performance": -0.000928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010099, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124697, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92243, "relative_activity": 0.740466, "balance": 0.853939, "dry_up": 1.017176, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06215, "annualized_volatility": 0.202749, "from_high_reference": -0.065978, "from_low_reference": 0.255688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.58339, "fair_value_reference": 17.928101, "structural_low": 18.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000146, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119225, "worst_return": 0.000929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.067238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103068, "worst_return": -0.237544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.107641, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223838, "worst_return": -0.008556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.587269, "energy": 30.905351, "activity_lines": [ 23.06312, 23.098325, 22.392791, 21.900241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.0908, "volume": 66416, "typical_volume": 147364.3, "trend": 21.51683, "fair_value": 17.800355, "relative_strength": -4.288412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.945902, "energy": 19.467862, "activity_lines": [ 22.6448, 22.943849, 22.439371, 21.938832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.2068, "volume": 93753, "typical_volume": 147747.65, "trend": 21.542057, "fair_value": 17.8594, "relative_strength": -4.685041, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.950281, "energy": 20.290842, "activity_lines": [ 22.403087, 22.803504, 22.485567, 21.983346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.18, "volume": 92243, "typical_volume": 124574.3, "trend": 21.58339, "fair_value": 17.928101, "relative_strength": -3.752149, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.585251, "energy": 21.880012, "activity_lines": [ 22.582653, 22.840525, 22.611416, 22.08902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }