{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61d7ba0f-321c-4ab5-9fda-3624c8f334f9", "symbol": "000807", "name": "Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.821, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.088, "architecture_energy": 25.11, "architecture_maturity": 73.737, "architecture_confidence": 64.781, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.81, "rotation_up": 29.56, "upward_expansion": 20.65, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 59.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.114667, 25.214503, 26.701053, 28.017267 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.129999, "trend_reference": 29.624627, "distance_from_trend": -0.084208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.02033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.505522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.260905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19352, "excess_performance": -0.200919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020254, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.505522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.938481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454618629, "relative_activity": 1.478355, "balance": 1.938481, "dry_up": 1.66085, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099817, "annualized_volatility": 0.515173, "from_high_reference": -0.290348, "from_low_reference": 0.769096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.624627, "fair_value_reference": 18.02033, "structural_low": 21.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.086639, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.068912, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.443003, "worst_return": -0.081833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.318933, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.236844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.455038, "worst_return": -0.027163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127326, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.250617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.626447, "worst_return": 0.059037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 79.159111, "activity_lines": [ 23.639334, 24.818398, 27.392322, 28.706378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.4, "volume": 555453768, "typical_volume": 303271836.8, "trend": 29.944294, "fair_value": 17.835865, "relative_strength": -2.986001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.071545, "energy": 51.903001, "activity_lines": [ 24.283334, 24.701592, 27.029375, 28.404961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.620001, "volume": 383308863, "typical_volume": 304487558.75, "trend": 29.814961, "fair_value": 17.927158, "relative_strength": 2.608622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.119154, "energy": 34.429264, "activity_lines": [ 25.252001, 24.878017, 26.821572, 28.190491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.129999, "volume": 454618629, "typical_volume": 307516456.8, "trend": 29.624627, "fair_value": 18.02033, "relative_strength": -1.260905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.088098, "energy": 25.110137, "activity_lines": [ 26.114667, 25.214503, 26.701053, 28.017267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }