{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61da03ac-8ae4-4155-8e6a-fd8eb3a43af4", "symbol": "FT", "name": "Fortune Minerals Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.807, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.562, "architecture_energy": 37.141, "architecture_maturity": 3.553, "architecture_confidence": 51.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.37, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 20.41, "deceleration": 54.67, "rotation_down": 62.45, "downward_expansion": 47.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.132667, 0.139273, 0.15019, 0.145247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.14, "trend_reference": 0.137333, "distance_from_trend": 0.019417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.076731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.824561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.009344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166667, "excess_performance": 0.046245, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.824561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.686802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080093, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.487725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081488, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 882200, "relative_activity": 0.270039, "balance": 1.081488, "dry_up": 0.538891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164835, "annualized_volatility": 0.674936, "from_high_reference": -0.44, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.137333, "fair_value_reference": 0.076731, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.174242, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181786, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.003788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 367900, "typical_volume": 567595.0, "trend": 0.058, "fair_value": 0.101346, "relative_strength": -26.209281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.384457, "energy": 14.808995, 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"energy": 21.075582, "activity_lines": [ 0.150667, 0.163091, 0.156048, 0.146473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 3047700, "typical_volume": 3506795.0, "trend": 0.134, "fair_value": 0.075128, "relative_strength": -3.393264, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.535068, "energy": 16.686454, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.153818, 0.153667, 0.145634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1405100, "typical_volume": 3416505.0, "trend": 0.135333, "fair_value": 0.075641, "relative_strength": 4.117418, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.381168, "energy": 23.894233, "activity_lines": [ 0.134667, 0.147273, 0.152238, 0.145376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1707100, "typical_volume": 3404370.0, "trend": 0.136667, "fair_value": 0.076154, "relative_strength": 4.126162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.544005, "energy": 33.94009, "activity_lines": [ 0.131333, 0.141636, 0.150762, 0.145032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.14, "volume": 882200, "typical_volume": 3266940.0, "trend": 0.137333, "fair_value": 0.076731, "relative_strength": 8.009344, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.561993, "energy": 37.140749, "activity_lines": [ 0.132667, 0.139273, 0.15019, 0.145247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }