{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61dc0117-ef29-42d1-8a9a-0c40f3c318dd", "symbol": "MWOB", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Information Technology Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.389, "architecture_energy": 57.118, "architecture_maturity": 44.964, "architecture_confidence": 68.424, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.34, "rotation_up": 50.05, "upward_expansion": 76.92, "deceleration": 70.32, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 8.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.058333, 29.753273, 29.357429, 28.333419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.684999, "trend_reference": 27.114333, "distance_from_trend": 0.16857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.237183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491959, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.887126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2867, "excess_performance": 0.222061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035661, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118871, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2867, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30342, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22139, "relative_activity": 1.87363, "balance": 1.30342, "dry_up": 2.24996, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035967, "annualized_volatility": 0.246223, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.414825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.114333, "fair_value_reference": 21.237183, "structural_low": 22.395, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068735, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.026051, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0853, "worst_return": -0.001929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.121474, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.072301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129594, "worst_return": 0.113354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.195119, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123395, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195119, "worst_return": 0.195119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.047212, 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29.265728, 27.428667, 26.708882 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.075001, "volume": 3546, "typical_volume": 9012.15, "trend": 26.194667, "fair_value": 20.501774, "relative_strength": 14.829626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.111117, "energy": 67.051721, "activity_lines": [ 30.002667, 29.567364, 27.790691, 26.97114 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.555, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8348.45, "trend": 26.294334, "fair_value": 20.600431, "relative_strength": 9.96546, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.001349, "energy": 56.976432, "activity_lines": [ 29.506667, 29.495, 27.985191, 27.12342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.290001, "volume": 94, "typical_volume": 7508.8, "trend": 26.405167, "fair_value": 20.705287, "relative_strength": 7.585879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.872405, "energy": 46.10894, "activity_lines": [ 29.335334, 29.522364, 28.230977, 27.316688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.805, "volume": 29213, "typical_volume": 7795.25, "trend": 26.550667, "fair_value": 20.812657, "relative_strength": 12.086563, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.634694, "energy": 45.989972, "activity_lines": [ 29.435667, 29.607637, 28.502477, 27.536033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 58046, "typical_volume": 10556.85, "trend": 26.678667, "fair_value": 20.91617, "relative_strength": 10.491257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.742029, "energy": 38.342047, "activity_lines": [ 29.358333, 29.534273, 28.693738, 27.708248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.375, "volume": 13486, "typical_volume": 10942.0, "trend": 26.799667, "fair_value": 21.018706, "relative_strength": 9.488093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.826267, "energy": 40.743075, "activity_lines": [ 29.353667, 29.483091, 28.876572, 27.882205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.02, "volume": 12672, "typical_volume": 11026.6, "trend": 26.9115, "fair_value": 21.122305, "relative_strength": 5.644344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.161373, "energy": 35.110157, "activity_lines": [ 29.277333, 29.369273, 29.002286, 28.025452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.684999, "volume": 22139, "typical_volume": 11816.1, "trend": 27.114333, "fair_value": 21.237183, "relative_strength": 11.887126, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.388575, "energy": 57.117717, "activity_lines": [ 30.058333, 29.753273, 29.357429, 28.333419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }