{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61ddfd98-eb83-4e9e-9d31-c941f0b91ba9", "symbol": "SHYM", "name": "iShares High Yield Muni Income Active ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.882, "architecture_energy": 24.725, "architecture_maturity": 59.199, "architecture_confidence": 78.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.22, "rotation_up": 19.86, "upward_expansion": 54.07, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 43.43, "downward_expansion": 22.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.114448, 22.176259, 22.153937, 22.11839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.14, "trend_reference": 22.08517, "distance_from_trend": 0.002483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.995831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.002746, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003701, "excess_performance": -0.121923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009278, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.880287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1461500, "relative_activity": 1.007104, "balance": 2.880287, "dry_up": 0.743675, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005567, "annualized_volatility": 0.029688, "from_high_reference": -0.009651, "from_low_reference": 0.043594 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.08517, "fair_value_reference": 20.995831, "structural_low": 21.680411, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013627, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028045, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.020678, "worst_return": -0.018836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042995, "worst_return": 0.013416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017595, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055908, "worst_return": 0.000397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 22.201819, "volume": 1031761, "typical_volume": 1457638.5, "trend": 22.063935, "fair_value": 20.935134, "relative_strength": -6.89272, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.669726, "energy": 59.516103, "activity_lines": [ 22.266817, 22.24422, 22.155801, 22.117109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.037398, "volume": 947837, "typical_volume": 1442686.05, "trend": 22.072324, "fair_value": 20.953795, "relative_strength": -6.830287, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.671435, "energy": 18.400988, "activity_lines": [ 22.185176, 22.215789, 22.151308, 22.115397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.057327, "volume": 875762, "typical_volume": 1422426.95, "trend": 22.078604, "fair_value": 20.974689, "relative_strength": -7.472847, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.238273, "energy": 20.256594, "activity_lines": [ 22.126418, 22.188971, 22.148947, 22.114429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.14, "volume": 1461500, "typical_volume": 1451191.4, "trend": 22.08517, "fair_value": 20.995831, "relative_strength": -10.002746, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.882308, "energy": 24.724926, "activity_lines": [ 22.114448, 22.176259, 22.153937, 22.11839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }