{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61e0c173-71df-454f-aef2-3611c57ad8d5", "symbol": "EXCD", "name": "iShares MSCI EM ex-China UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.267, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.091, "architecture_energy": 20.76, "architecture_maturity": 65.771, "architecture_confidence": 80.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.81, "rotation_up": 16.52, "upward_expansion": 45.88, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 41.18, "downward_expansion": 28.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.35036, 8.551335, 8.553966, 8.312056 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.456, "trend_reference": 7.980082, "distance_from_trend": 0.059638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.022582, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.404049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.350704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.177175, "excess_performance": 0.060512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.404049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053507, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 511384, "relative_activity": 0.952305, "balance": 0.616112, "dry_up": 0.786026, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054235, "annualized_volatility": 0.3096, "from_high_reference": -0.099755, "from_low_reference": 0.503978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.980082, "fair_value_reference": 6.022582, "structural_low": 6.7091, "invalidation": "A 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"direction": 33.348155, "energy": 24.180096, "activity_lines": [ 8.513127, 8.699871, 8.53543, 8.255098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.216, "volume": 112030, "typical_volume": 625989.6, "trend": 7.925652, "fair_value": 6.001604, "relative_strength": 3.85043, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.059052, "energy": 23.209066, "activity_lines": [ 8.366647, 8.600331, 8.536146, 8.27784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.456, "volume": 511384, "typical_volume": 536995.8, "trend": 7.980082, "fair_value": 6.022582, "relative_strength": 5.350704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.090798, "energy": 20.760144, "activity_lines": [ 8.35036, 8.551335, 8.553966, 8.312056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }