{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61e2f30d-c511-401f-ac27-09a6c002db1d", "symbol": "SLVR", "name": "WisdomTree Silver", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.694, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.098, "architecture_energy": 55.141, "architecture_maturity": 32.438, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.34, "rotation_up": 21.89, "upward_expansion": 8.94, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 58.44, "downward_expansion": 82.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.429, 42.985182, 46.277262, 48.604592 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.880001, "trend_reference": 52.160167, "distance_from_trend": -0.139573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.337167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.479374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.430398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.143021, "excess_performance": -0.313913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.479374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.515866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.260732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19431, "relative_activity": 1.064432, "balance": 0.260732, "dry_up": 0.981728, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083925, "annualized_volatility": 0.482051, "from_high_reference": -0.463029, "from_low_reference": 0.697749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.160167, "fair_value_reference": 30.337167, "structural_low": 39.445, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.027261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013695, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.116176, "worst_return": -0.116728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124049, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211128, "worst_return": 0.013594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.209663, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459848, "worst_return": 0.057417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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43.966666, 46.537545, 49.435405, 51.449129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.915001, "volume": 21171, "typical_volume": 22722.9, "trend": 53.079667, "fair_value": 29.874975, "relative_strength": -21.456502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.380985, "energy": 89.685669, "activity_lines": [ 42.354667, 44.9, 48.308453, 50.584818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.215, "volume": 20858, "typical_volume": 20935.45, "trend": 52.856667, "fair_value": 30.022481, "relative_strength": -17.044447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.307266, "energy": 79.004976, "activity_lines": [ 42.039333, 43.972546, 47.519381, 49.883871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.695, "volume": 10225, "typical_volume": 19823.6, "trend": 52.547167, "fair_value": 30.164551, "relative_strength": -20.777084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.422874, "energy": 76.979926, "activity_lines": [ 41.477333, 42.981364, 46.659429, 49.099248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.880001, "volume": 19431, "typical_volume": 18254.8, "trend": 52.160167, "fair_value": 30.337167, "relative_strength": -15.430398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.098307, "energy": 55.141181, "activity_lines": [ 42.429, 42.985182, 46.277262, 48.604592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }