{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61e46a7f-1d91-4380-8e4e-238ae0bd0e6b", "symbol": "LDDR", "name": "Stone Ridge 2035 Term Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.836, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.078, "architecture_energy": 80.462, "architecture_maturity": 9.28, "architecture_confidence": 88.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.97, "rotation_up": 13.64, "upward_expansion": 19.85, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 72.5, "downward_expansion": 95.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.167747, 77.416331, 77.773973, 78.122502 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 77.29, "trend_reference": 78.546262, "distance_from_trend": -0.015994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.629573, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004374, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.51955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024948, "excess_performance": -0.150573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4641, "relative_activity": 0.672122, "balance": 1.357174, "dry_up": 0.357314, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006323, "annualized_volatility": 0.043169, "from_high_reference": -0.037912, "from_low_reference": 0.005262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.546262, "fair_value_reference": 77.629573, "structural_low": 76.885415, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 77.514139, "volume": 2757, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 77.274225, "volume": 3732, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.409665, "volume": 1518, "typical_volume": 7782.9, "trend": 78.747834, "fair_value": 77.649654, "relative_strength": -9.823477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.233947, "energy": 67.776807, "activity_lines": [ 77.601361, 77.797533, 78.123837, 78.428826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.99632, "volume": 1836, "typical_volume": 7644.5, "trend": 78.675432, "fair_value": 77.641588, "relative_strength": -9.506605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.261443, "energy": 81.831826, "activity_lines": [ 77.336379, 77.639527, 77.986209, 78.315825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.995924, "volume": 1874, "typical_volume": 7553.15, "trend": 78.607005, "fair_value": 77.633714, "relative_strength": -10.139866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.793835, "energy": 86.080327, "activity_lines": [ 77.150432, 77.493715, 77.860905, 78.20747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.29, "volume": 4641, "typical_volume": 6905.0, "trend": 78.546262, "fair_value": 77.629573, "relative_strength": -12.51955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.078095, "energy": 80.4619, "activity_lines": [ 77.167747, 77.416331, 77.773973, 78.122502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }