{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61e83f0e-bd11-4aca-b881-5fac0f39a1c3", "symbol": "DIRR3", "name": "Direcional Engenharia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.618, "architecture_energy": 77.589, "architecture_maturity": 16.165, "architecture_confidence": 83.982, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.01, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 78.16, "downward_expansion": 93.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.667333, 12.394727, 12.814, 13.182022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.58, "trend_reference": 13.656667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.743411, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.023685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267552, "excess_performance": -0.210504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35951300, "relative_activity": 1.223862, "balance": 0.355357, "dry_up": 1.241768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091072, "annualized_volatility": 0.386091, "from_high_reference": -0.329002, "from_low_reference": 0.047964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.656667, "fair_value_reference": 9.743411, "structural_low": 11.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051252, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.096461, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.208453, "worst_return": -0.193662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.414046, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.336974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.420567, "worst_return": 0.068063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.353808, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.328973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.502164, "worst_return": 0.205451, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"typical_volume": 30500945.0, "trend": 13.810667, "fair_value": 9.667152, "relative_strength": -23.457145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.64533, "energy": 63.980903, "activity_lines": [ 12.534, 12.957091, 13.154095, 13.479785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 36366300, "typical_volume": 29657505.0, "trend": 13.734667, "fair_value": 9.704832, "relative_strength": -25.383139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.842926, "energy": 76.806013, "activity_lines": [ 11.967333, 12.641636, 12.967952, 13.321032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.58, "volume": 35951300, "typical_volume": 29375300.0, "trend": 13.656667, "fair_value": 9.743411, "relative_strength": -21.023685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.617834, "energy": 77.589365, "activity_lines": [ 11.667333, 12.394727, 12.814, 13.182022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }