{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61eb48a6-f10b-4ebe-82ac-a1ecd8ccedf7", "symbol": "SEYAIND", "name": "Seya Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.84, "architecture_energy": 53.03, "architecture_maturity": 16.968, "architecture_confidence": 70.534, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.7, "rotation_up": 7.44, "upward_expansion": 16.81, "deceleration": 46.55, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 80.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.511333, 12.726727, 13.216, 13.054645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.53, "trend_reference": 13.359667, "distance_from_trend": -0.062102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.139231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.407263, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.014009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261638, "excess_performance": -0.217929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.407263, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114245, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48266, "relative_activity": 2.199017, "balance": 1.541293, "dry_up": 1.336946, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062803, "annualized_volatility": 0.572166, "from_high_reference": -0.477699, "from_low_reference": 0.467213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.359667, "fair_value_reference": 21.139231, "structural_low": 8.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.022362, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.030207, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.506767, "worst_return": -0.431939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033395, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.099467, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.521362, "worst_return": -0.413699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112453, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.207576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.017433, "worst_return": -0.436104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2818, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.378974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.087199, "worst_return": -0.445934, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143045, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043653, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"volume": 23233, "typical_volume": 44473.55, "trend": 14.056333, "fair_value": 21.455577, "relative_strength": -17.460831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.014882, "energy": 36.05935, "activity_lines": [ 13.038, 13.564, 13.303857, 13.388064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.89, "volume": 22526, "typical_volume": 41333.25, "trend": 13.898333, "fair_value": 21.36, "relative_strength": -17.874716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.502109, "energy": 31.69653, "activity_lines": [ 12.978, 13.345273, 13.331667, 13.312817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.28, "volume": 7338, "typical_volume": 32395.7, "trend": 13.731667, "fair_value": 21.277179, "relative_strength": -19.245935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.909562, "energy": 42.348712, "activity_lines": [ 12.717333, 13.059636, 13.296286, 13.208409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.35, "volume": 39248, "typical_volume": 21691.75, "trend": 13.531667, "fair_value": 21.207949, "relative_strength": -20.27026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.490404, "energy": 48.06259, "activity_lines": [ 12.56, 12.848182, 13.255, 13.119269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.53, "volume": 48266, "typical_volume": 21948.9, "trend": 13.359667, "fair_value": 21.139231, "relative_strength": -19.014009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.839965, "energy": 53.029603, "activity_lines": [ 12.511333, 12.726727, 13.216, 13.054645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }