{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61f1ef74-1cfd-44b6-bfbd-b056eec17efd", "symbol": "XDSR", "name": "iShares ESG Advanced MSCI EAFE Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.777, "architecture_energy": 48.168, "architecture_maturity": 64.139, "architecture_confidence": 62.355, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.85, "rotation_up": 48.53, "upward_expansion": 76.01, "deceleration": 67.68, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 11.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.612666, 76.515209, 75.021272, 73.575426 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.330002, "trend_reference": 72.108804, "distance_from_trend": 0.086275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.991749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.419936, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10355, "excess_performance": -0.016871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10355, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541864, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7900, "relative_activity": 0.482148, "balance": 1.541864, "dry_up": 1.036009, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029472, "annualized_volatility": 0.199791, "from_high_reference": -0.026883, "from_low_reference": 0.234379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.108804, "fair_value_reference": 60.991749, "structural_low": 64.190002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0118, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.004084, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.065785, "worst_return": -0.121217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029706, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.009812, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.10593, "worst_return": -0.027713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103027, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016871, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.117419, "worst_return": 0.019631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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[ 76.616435, 75.095394, 72.899799, 71.929775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 77.199997, "volume": 32300, "typical_volume": 16685.0, "trend": 71.056952, "fair_value": 60.293136, "relative_strength": 0.474812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.660587, "energy": 81.275408, "activity_lines": [ 77.073638, 75.711537, 73.449303, 72.347907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.040001, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 16180.0, "trend": 71.304556, "fair_value": 60.458746, "relative_strength": -2.051117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.109005, "energy": 62.115663, "activity_lines": [ 76.503679, 75.798869, 73.770665, 72.604878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.379997, "volume": 19800, "typical_volume": 16005.0, "trend": 71.557137, "fair_value": 60.623506, "relative_strength": -1.704266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.22819, "energy": 49.307423, "activity_lines": [ 76.053332, 75.894815, 74.112978, 72.86781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.029999, "volume": 31300, "typical_volume": 16525.0, "trend": 71.834804, "fair_value": 60.800905, "relative_strength": -0.320891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.649327, "energy": 37.393034, "activity_lines": [ 75.950665, 76.024075, 74.480101, 73.156381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.330002, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 16385.0, "trend": 72.108804, "fair_value": 60.991749, "relative_strength": -0.419936, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.776951, "energy": 48.16778, "activity_lines": [ 76.612666, 76.515209, 75.021272, 73.575426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }