{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61f4b52d-81df-4890-84e7-dc72ce4a9760", "symbol": "300176", "name": "GuangDong HongTeo Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.997, "architecture_energy": 53.782, "architecture_maturity": 78.308, "architecture_confidence": 90.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 28.08, "upward_expansion": 9.79, "deceleration": 60.78, "rotation_down": 47.45, "downward_expansion": 80.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.012667, 5.028112, 5.509821, 5.959416 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 6.47712, "distance_from_trend": -0.198718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.389212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.187693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.776289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.30984, "excess_performance": -0.31724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.187693, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.30984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50833080, "relative_activity": 1.11999, "balance": 0.413608, "dry_up": 1.052402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101603, "annualized_volatility": 0.306631, "from_high_reference": -0.378443, "from_low_reference": 0.128261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.47712, "fair_value_reference": 6.389212, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.023511, "positive_rate": 0.695652, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.0084, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.175325, "worst_return": -0.115385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056385, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.04371, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.91314, "worst_return": -0.148008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.106136, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.027963, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.590201, "worst_return": -0.230312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.012667, 5.028112, 5.509821, 5.959416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }