{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61f5c14c-790b-4159-9b15-bc1046fe2b6d", "symbol": "002856", "name": "Shenzhen Magic Design & Decoration Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.395, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.462, "architecture_energy": 31.437, "architecture_maturity": 51.423, "architecture_confidence": 53.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.99, "rotation_up": 14.19, "upward_expansion": 16.18, "deceleration": 71.01, "rotation_down": 62.61, "downward_expansion": 41.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.32, 16.125273, 17.061286, 16.323914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.83, "trend_reference": 15.548, "distance_from_trend": -0.04618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.056474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.753862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015926, "excess_performance": -0.023325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524946, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30961181, "relative_activity": 1.002449, "balance": 1.524946, "dry_up": 1.17063, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.241195, "annualized_volatility": 0.875519, "from_high_reference": -0.446642, "from_low_reference": 0.572641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.548, "fair_value_reference": 11.056474, "structural_low": 10.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003371, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003105, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.107175, "worst_return": -0.288789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024936, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.01178, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.761566, "worst_return": -0.325561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054956, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.044062, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.31573, "worst_return": -0.356951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.072227, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.074675, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.7125, "worst_return": -0.210762, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010242, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134073, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224889, "active": 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20.244059, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.243665, "energy": 27.708578, "activity_lines": [ 19.143333, 20.148727, 17.892857, 16.715871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.31, "volume": 40351818, "typical_volume": 30945756.15, "trend": 15.373667, "fair_value": 10.980705, "relative_strength": -2.067247, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.060336, "energy": 20.859188, "activity_lines": [ 16.926666, 18.969272, 17.628476, 16.586086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.29, "volume": 39378680, "typical_volume": 31633817.55, "trend": 15.412667, "fair_value": 11.001603, "relative_strength": -2.572752, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.36987, "energy": 21.421848, "activity_lines": [ 15.436, 17.800182, 17.365762, 16.451656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.05, "volume": 33930500, "typical_volume": 32027036.4, "trend": 15.447333, "fair_value": 11.027308, "relative_strength": 4.511571, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.995938, "energy": 32.218546, "activity_lines": [ 14.632667, 16.854545, 17.177333, 16.363742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.83, "volume": 30961181, "typical_volume": 30885541.65, "trend": 15.548, "fair_value": 11.056474, "relative_strength": 4.753862, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.461505, "energy": 31.436593, "activity_lines": [ 14.32, 16.125273, 17.061286, 16.323914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }