{ "ticker": { "uuid": "61f9cc97-5de5-479c-be9a-75be47300625", "symbol": "ALUP3", "name": "Alupar Investimento S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.201, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.221, "architecture_energy": 37.774, "architecture_maturity": 17.968, "architecture_confidence": 92.752, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.99, "rotation_up": 22.65, "upward_expansion": 7.4, "deceleration": 43.94, "rotation_down": 48.74, "downward_expansion": 76.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.622667, 11.697273, 11.944157, 12.163005 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.33, "trend_reference": 12.376208, "distance_from_trend": -0.084534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.959803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.028717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08029, "excess_performance": -0.023242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22400, "relative_activity": 1.123652, "balance": 0.672677, "dry_up": 1.230248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071989, "annualized_volatility": 0.342502, "from_high_reference": -0.1854, "from_low_reference": 0.145256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.376208, "fair_value_reference": 9.959803, "structural_low": 11.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005064, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.005965, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.095937, "worst_return": -0.089228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024051, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149567, "worst_return": 0.015054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.198187, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.119472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219159, "worst_return": 0.177215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -3.810298, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.448517, "energy": 31.742319, "activity_lines": [ 12.030667, 12.286636, 12.558462, 12.538832 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.25, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 28770.0, "trend": 12.410428, "fair_value": 9.799577, "relative_strength": -8.090272, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.027415, "energy": 42.895611, "activity_lines": [ 11.795333, 12.039487, 12.423047, 12.462964 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.29, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 25790.0, "trend": 12.385084, "fair_value": 9.818376, "relative_strength": -9.996941, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.228459, "energy": 54.155451, "activity_lines": [ 11.59, 11.847949, 12.297574, 12.390678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.81, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 22955.0, "trend": 12.376745, "fair_value": 9.840936, "relative_strength": -6.171912, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.523217, "energy": 56.241534, "activity_lines": [ 11.597333, 11.793151, 12.226525, 12.353576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.44, "volume": 48200, "typical_volume": 24135.0, "trend": 12.399251, "fair_value": 9.868392, "relative_strength": -2.997858, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.440204, "energy": 34.221091, "activity_lines": [ 11.853333, 11.874069, 12.22249, 12.357657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 34000, "typical_volume": 22955.0, "trend": 12.405449, "fair_value": 9.893938, "relative_strength": -3.972435, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.568837, "energy": 22.151318, "activity_lines": [ 11.934667, 11.880545, 12.180231, 12.331899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.71, "volume": 21200, "typical_volume": 21125.0, "trend": 12.396074, "fair_value": 9.916876, "relative_strength": -6.279003, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.601142, "energy": 19.593363, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 11.853818, 12.116226, 12.287031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.53, "volume": 20500, "typical_volume": 20985.0, "trend": 12.386328, "fair_value": 9.938391, "relative_strength": -9.484189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.022949, "energy": 21.68415, "activity_lines": [ 11.812, 11.790545, 12.037505, 12.231156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.33, "volume": 22400, "typical_volume": 19935.0, "trend": 12.376208, "fair_value": 9.959803, "relative_strength": -8.028717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.221495, "energy": 37.773815, "activity_lines": [ 11.622667, 11.697273, 11.944157, 12.163005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }