{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62017cca-d4ed-4687-8309-ed34891b3e20", "symbol": "BJ", "name": "BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.355, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.188, "architecture_energy": 25.069, "architecture_maturity": 10.666, "architecture_confidence": 66.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.44, "rotation_up": 61.22, "upward_expansion": 42.21, "deceleration": 33.86, "rotation_down": 17.53, "downward_expansion": 17.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.146, 92.704909, 91.664048, 92.605118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 96.48, "trend_reference": 93.895333, "distance_from_trend": 0.027527, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 89.407821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.582468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039044, "excess_performance": -0.164669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013108, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6042429, "relative_activity": 0.626267, "balance": 1.10314, "dry_up": 0.765959, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068523, "annualized_volatility": 0.277442, "from_high_reference": -0.113643, "from_low_reference": 0.159443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.895333, "fair_value_reference": 89.407821, "structural_low": 83.2124, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003892, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.012713, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.063964, "worst_return": -0.129189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026169, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012242, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142748, "worst_return": -0.052897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0823, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352541, "worst_return": -0.113546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142958, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057601, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 88.873205, "relative_strength": -9.642783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.726633, "energy": 14.485715, "activity_lines": [ 89.98, 89.287636, 90.675905, 92.183935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.94, "volume": 7911105, "typical_volume": 10020189.85, "trend": 93.482, "fair_value": 89.045705, "relative_strength": -9.059474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.71194, "energy": 15.01949, "activity_lines": [ 91.312, 89.944909, 90.727095, 92.147011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.78, "volume": 7165609, "typical_volume": 9886076.8, "trend": 93.677333, "fair_value": 89.236474, "relative_strength": -4.725668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.528135, "energy": 20.746311, "activity_lines": [ 93.742667, 91.544364, 91.257619, 92.424301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.48, "volume": 6042429, "typical_volume": 9648334.95, "trend": 93.895333, "fair_value": 89.407821, "relative_strength": -8.582468, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.188138, "energy": 25.068534, "activity_lines": [ 95.146, 92.704909, 91.664048, 92.605118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }