{ "ticker": { "uuid": "620660eb-eb88-4612-9524-928ff241df4b", "symbol": "CRBU", "name": "Caribou Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.741, "architecture_energy": 41.17, "architecture_maturity": 8.829, "architecture_confidence": 57.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.12, "rotation_up": 22.93, "upward_expansion": 18.47, "deceleration": 43.28, "rotation_down": 54.41, "downward_expansion": 53.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.601667, 1.657273, 1.788429, 1.818882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 1.804, "distance_from_trend": -0.085366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.661876, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.455786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050955, "excess_performance": -0.136498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380136, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5707805, "relative_activity": 0.676598, "balance": 1.53736, "dry_up": 0.821387, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186671, "annualized_volatility": 0.673957, "from_high_reference": -0.533239, "from_low_reference": 0.195652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.804, "fair_value_reference": 2.661876, "structural_low": 1.425, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.113208, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.127479, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.509091, "worst_return": -0.449153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.220126, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.173098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297136, "worst_return": -0.519048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.002387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.202022, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.144654, "worst_return": -0.547619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.546539, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.906422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.546539, "worst_return": -0.546539, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.398773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213904, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.297189, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.240476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.09, "volume": 5462507, "typical_volume": 10866466.25, "trend": 5.510833, "fair_value": 10.661468, "relative_strength": -27.045267, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.456078, "energy": 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.162807, "energy": 16.116038, "activity_lines": [ 1.760667, 1.801091, 1.883905, 1.867011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 5548928, "typical_volume": 8459948.4, "trend": 1.808667, "fair_value": 2.729632, "relative_strength": -24.090438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.761605, "energy": 18.269199, "activity_lines": [ 1.703, 1.744182, 1.851571, 1.851333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 6038085, "typical_volume": 8441762.05, "trend": 1.804333, "fair_value": 2.695914, "relative_strength": -29.158594, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.11604, "energy": 35.983609, "activity_lines": [ 1.613333, 1.677636, 1.809952, 1.828839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 5707805, "typical_volume": 8436034.7, "trend": 1.804, "fair_value": 2.661876, "relative_strength": -23.455786, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.741453, "energy": 41.170333, "activity_lines": [ 1.601667, 1.657273, 1.788429, 1.818882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }