{ "ticker": { "uuid": "620f0978-0501-4049-b523-5b229bf43233", "symbol": "600748", "name": "Shanghai Industrial Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.106, "architecture_energy": 55.469, "architecture_maturity": 54.525, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 9.31, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 55.43, "downward_expansion": 82.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.634, 3.685636, 4.110095, 4.406409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 4.835, "distance_from_trend": -0.216132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.89244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.94201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319569, "excess_performance": -0.276365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69721465, "relative_activity": 0.775575, "balance": 0.208786, "dry_up": 0.877669, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119342, "annualized_volatility": 0.409543, "from_high_reference": -0.537805, "from_low_reference": 0.148485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.835, "fair_value_reference": 3.89244, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.035231, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.012478, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.404082, "worst_return": -0.224453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084355, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.061319, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.477733, "worst_return": -0.282946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059957, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007937, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.929012, "worst_return": -0.25964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.052225, "energy": 83.739221, "activity_lines": [ 3.532, 3.753636, 4.264286, 4.557097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.71, "volume": 102380731, "typical_volume": 89588171.95, "trend": 4.889333, "fair_value": 3.894801, "relative_strength": -23.445644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.673704, "energy": 60.345055, "activity_lines": [ 3.569333, 3.700909, 4.180238, 4.477333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 69721465, "typical_volume": 89896516.1, "trend": 4.835, "fair_value": 3.89244, "relative_strength": -23.94201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.106237, "energy": 55.469054, "activity_lines": [ 3.634, 3.685636, 4.110095, 4.406409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }