{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6211f46f-ee33-46d5-a999-8ed9efc16856", "symbol": "3189", "name": "E Fund ETFs Trust - E Fund (HK) CSI Liquor Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.627, "architecture_energy": 27.275, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.115, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.72, "rotation_up": 34.55, "upward_expansion": 23.45, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 25.73, "downward_expansion": 59.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.166, 1.133964, 1.163571, 1.211105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.184, "trend_reference": 1.280867, "distance_from_trend": -0.075626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.648641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.436183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210667, "excess_performance": -0.177085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3401600, "relative_activity": 1.054892, "balance": 1.056895, "dry_up": 1.519392, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058082, "annualized_volatility": 0.247464, "from_high_reference": -0.316397, "from_low_reference": 0.160784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.280867, "fair_value_reference": 1.648641, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.026455, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.008057, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.248547, "worst_return": -0.093458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.052239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067428, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.120321, "worst_return": -0.16085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04602, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.159502, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052139, "worst_return": -0.244536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.124, 1.166448, 1.218004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.184, "volume": 3401600, "typical_volume": 3224595.0, "trend": 1.280867, "fair_value": 1.648641, "relative_strength": -15.436183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.627232, "energy": 27.275415, "activity_lines": [ 1.166, 1.133964, 1.163571, 1.211105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }