{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "62121e5f-131c-4cce-9a2a-27609abca4b8",
    "symbol": "XGLF",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI GCC Select Swap UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 69.794,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -52.161,
    "architecture_energy": 51.493,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.359,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.631,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.58,
        "rotation_up": 15.83,
        "upward_expansion": 13.24,
        "deceleration": 36.29,
        "rotation_down": 62.8,
        "downward_expansion": 86.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.6865,
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        28.031452
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 28.1,
    "trend_reference": 28.226583,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.004485,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.996513,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080914,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -7.1971,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.05427,
    "excess_performance": -0.105505,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004485,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007439,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080914,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021205,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071971,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038147,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05427,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.566117,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 756,
      "relative_activity": 0.219099,
      "balance": 0.566117,
      "dry_up": 0.769236,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01804,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.130901,
      "from_high_reference": -0.057363,
      "from_low_reference": 0.077248
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 28.226583,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.996513,
      "structural_low": 26.540001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.307692,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006843,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.071678,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "fair_value": 25.649719,
        "relative_strength": -4.112453,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.452007,
        "energy": 36.478492,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.710333,
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          28.378988,
          28.210813
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 28.299999,
        "volume": 1832,
        "typical_volume": 5608.55,
        "trend": 28.070953,
        "fair_value": 25.677811,
        "relative_strength": -3.382424,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.749092,
        "energy": 37.026757,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.5845,
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          28.382845,
          28.226246
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 27.790001,
        "volume": 1881,
        "typical_volume": 5702.6,
        "trend": 28.04812,
        "fair_value": 25.701561,
        "relative_strength": -4.554714,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.806434,
        "energy": 5.805724,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.274333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 27.9275,
        "volume": 455,
        "typical_volume": 5398.35,
        "trend": 28.026083,
        "fair_value": 25.72927,
        "relative_strength": -6.351171,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.113997,
        "energy": 10.930603,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.0775,
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          28.291428,
          28.200339
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 28.057501,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 5261.75,
        "trend": 28.018167,
        "fair_value": 25.758164,
        "relative_strength": -5.240954,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.500986,
        "energy": 13.834117,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.031334,
          28.252409,
          28.260131,
          28.202366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 27.522499,
        "volume": 186,
        "typical_volume": 4988.75,
        "trend": 28.012667,
        "fair_value": 25.781353,
        "relative_strength": -6.489291,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.228303,
        "energy": 24.086298,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.833667,
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          28.175595,
          28.170387
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 28.307501,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 4779.65,
        "trend": 28.038833,
        "fair_value": 25.808212,
        "relative_strength": -4.670458,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -14.365795,
        "energy": 20.230482,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.963,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 28.592501,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3219.0,
        "trend": 28.088833,
        "fair_value": 25.840183,
        "relative_strength": -2.623493,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.68661,
        "energy": 10.855805,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.186834,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 27.977501,
        "volume": 28,
        "typical_volume": 3160.45,
        "trend": 28.132333,
        "fair_value": 25.865376,
        "relative_strength": -5.807325,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -7.830907,
        "energy": 5.363833,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.152167,
          28.104228,
          28.161203,
          28.217946
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 27.84,
        "volume": 175,
        "typical_volume": 3007.4,
        "trend": 28.160333,
        "fair_value": 25.889767,
        "relative_strength": -7.491757,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.740604,
        "energy": 7.448529,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.068334,
          28.049,
          28.124703,
          28.199086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 27.942499,
        "volume": 5572,
        "typical_volume": 3218.75,
        "trend": 28.181583,
        "fair_value": 25.911962,
        "relative_strength": -5.316763,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.229693,
        "energy": 7.195063,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.033167,
          28.023682,
          28.106357,
          28.185032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.4475,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 3207.3,
        "trend": 28.198083,
        "fair_value": 25.931578,
        "relative_strength": -7.626756,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.019405,
        "energy": 54.974622,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.805,
          27.918546,
          28.046702,
          28.137672
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.5,
        "volume": 54,
        "typical_volume": 3143.45,
        "trend": 28.204167,
        "fair_value": 25.9481,
        "relative_strength": -8.354332,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.487091,
        "energy": 64.514339,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.651667,
          27.838455,
          27.997083,
          28.092634
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.365,
        "volume": 9805,
        "typical_volume": 3544.55,
        "trend": 28.209167,
        "fair_value": 25.968821,
        "relative_strength": -9.622431,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.571894,
        "energy": 68.141899,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.526167,
          27.739091,
          27.935298,
          28.038495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.1,
        "volume": 756,
        "typical_volume": 3450.5,
        "trend": 28.226583,
        "fair_value": 25.996513,
        "relative_strength": -7.1971,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.161352,
        "energy": 51.493304,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.6865,
          27.783591,
          27.942524,
          28.031452
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}