{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62144c90-fc76-47ba-a521-cda26c0c38c0", "symbol": "DAVAN", "name": "Endava plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.347, "architecture_energy": 66.528, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.044, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.38, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 52.62, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.16, 47.478, 53.870095, 61.762473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 47.16, "trend_reference": 74.163667, "distance_from_trend": -0.364109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 461.80109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.897878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.350858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.586316, "excess_performance": -0.531649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.364109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.897878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.593509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.586316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0501, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072894, "annualized_volatility": 0.527785, "from_high_reference": -0.834526, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.163667, "fair_value_reference": 461.80109, "structural_low": 47.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.013373, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.026311, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.255102, "worst_return": -0.355742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.227083, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.237715, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.285612, "worst_return": -0.459017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.31867, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.450728, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": -0.228346, "worst_return": -0.575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-11", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.590186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12733, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.382296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": 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"relative_strength": -65.167947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.842866, "energy": 75.956968, "activity_lines": [ 47.761333, 50.765818, 61.232572, 70.254108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.16, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 415.3, "trend": 81.144666, "fair_value": 478.431732, "relative_strength": -63.935268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.690686, "energy": 73.618945, "activity_lines": [ 47.399333, 49.261636, 59.118095, 67.904882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.16, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 399.3, "trend": 78.816666, "fair_value": 472.302501, "relative_strength": -62.266743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.528521, "energy": 69.150386, "activity_lines": [ 47.16, 48.390909, 57.164762, 65.712323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 399.3, "trend": 76.726, "fair_value": 467.051796, "relative_strength": -61.011768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.997829, "energy": 67.755375, "activity_lines": [ 47.16, 47.833636, 55.415429, 63.669957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 349.3, "trend": 74.163667, "fair_value": 461.80109, "relative_strength": -59.350858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.346965, "energy": 66.527907, "activity_lines": [ 47.16, 47.478, 53.870095, 61.762473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }