{ "ticker": { "uuid": "621802e7-a4b1-4fd8-ba28-81ca8c51f4a7", "symbol": "EDR", "name": "eDreams ODIGEO S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.399, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.192, "architecture_energy": 84.311, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.15, "rotation_up": 78.76, "upward_expansion": 96.4, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 15.16, "downward_expansion": 18.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.305, 5.088273, 4.58319, 4.225183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 3.8455, "distance_from_trend": 0.440645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.384776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132311, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.604689, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.704615, "excess_performance": 0.580185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.440645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132311, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.42928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.704615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.472703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2234747, "relative_activity": 0.63506, "balance": 4.472703, "dry_up": 0.785152, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073382, "annualized_volatility": 0.510214, "from_high_reference": -0.401081, "from_low_reference": 1.067164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.8455, "fair_value_reference": 6.384776, "structural_low": 2.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.036885, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.033755, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.449925, "worst_return": -0.212371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05102, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.066009, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.269588, "worst_return": -0.570595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014491, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.194232, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.407953, "worst_return": -0.632439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.267305, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.190248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146423, "worst_return": -0.501875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035006, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174112, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 3507975.2, "trend": 3.7885, "fair_value": 6.388494, "relative_strength": -7.93175, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.508971, "energy": 84.074347, "activity_lines": [ 5.152667, 4.949182, 4.438595, 4.112183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 2234747, "typical_volume": 3518955.85, "trend": 3.8455, "fair_value": 6.384776, "relative_strength": -6.604689, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.191611, "energy": 84.310979, "activity_lines": [ 5.305, 5.088273, 4.58319, 4.225183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }