{ "ticker": { "uuid": "621ea2a6-964d-4aeb-b073-c1c78a3945e4", "symbol": "EXXO34", "name": "Exxon Mobil Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.131, "architecture_energy": 21.809, "architecture_maturity": 20.296, "architecture_confidence": 55.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.63, "rotation_up": 59.84, "upward_expansion": 41.64, "deceleration": 39.84, "rotation_down": 20.04, "downward_expansion": 18.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.317999, 94.075818, 93.810939, 94.817563 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 96.349998, "trend_reference": 95.150156, "distance_from_trend": 0.01261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.128095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.885669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.005432, "excess_performance": 0.06248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050476, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068857, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154256, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15338, "relative_activity": 0.210765, "balance": 0.445917, "dry_up": 0.416902, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061483, "annualized_volatility": 0.363193, "from_high_reference": -0.161109, "from_low_reference": 0.39842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.150156, "fair_value_reference": 77.128095, "structural_low": 87.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005267, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.026651, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.114223, "worst_return": -0.090033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030241, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.072493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.150649, "worst_return": -0.142863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056481, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.093169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263669, "worst_return": -0.046899, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 93.600872, "fair_value": 76.417244, "relative_strength": 4.232642, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.965086, "energy": 35.521043, "activity_lines": [ 90.574668, 91.456727, 93.172189, 94.13715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.989998, "volume": 30919, "typical_volume": 99476.75, "trend": 94.213985, "fair_value": 76.697061, "relative_strength": 11.103921, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.302025, "energy": 12.17572, "activity_lines": [ 94.242, 92.936545, 93.696363, 94.613868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.71, "volume": 21597, "typical_volume": 86722.9, "trend": 94.688737, "fair_value": 76.920466, "relative_strength": 3.038447, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.856755, "energy": 13.438368, "activity_lines": [ 95.43, 93.429091, 93.704227, 94.710385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.349998, "volume": 15338, "typical_volume": 72773.15, "trend": 95.150156, "fair_value": 77.128095, "relative_strength": 6.885669, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.130724, "energy": 21.809185, "activity_lines": [ 96.317999, 94.075818, 93.810939, 94.817563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }