{ "ticker": { "uuid": "621fe7b6-7088-42ee-8897-c0a44458e7b3", "symbol": "AZN", "name": "AstraZeneca PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.183, "architecture_energy": 79.704, "architecture_maturity": 18.698, "architecture_confidence": 83.151, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 12.14, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 34.28, "rotation_down": 78.02, "downward_expansion": 93.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.11255, 172.085194, 178.113145, 182.259096 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 161.42, "trend_reference": 186.337983, "distance_from_trend": -0.133725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.193207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.357858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146256, "excess_performance": -0.271881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37485713, "relative_activity": 3.164708, "balance": 0.640333, "dry_up": 1.669654, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065359, "annualized_volatility": 0.320896, "from_high_reference": -0.231077, "from_low_reference": 0.13038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 186.337983, "fair_value_reference": 150.193207, "structural_low": 152.403604, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018577, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.010627, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.127065, "worst_return": -0.061785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146884, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.136095, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236324, "worst_return": -0.050828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119692, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.118807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284179, "worst_return": -0.013791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"close": 168.145899, "volume": 10627221, "typical_volume": 10057918.2, "trend": 187.500054, "fair_value": 149.755013, "relative_strength": -12.279062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.240263, "energy": 68.876511, "activity_lines": [ 173.297655, 177.250641, 181.961315, 185.14262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 168.523397, "volume": 14785210, "typical_volume": 10370478.05, "trend": 187.137971, "fair_value": 150.005457, "relative_strength": -12.981492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.448734, "energy": 76.545334, "activity_lines": [ 170.226115, 175.145439, 180.32459, 183.91832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.42, "volume": 37485713, "typical_volume": 11844920.85, "trend": 186.337983, "fair_value": 150.193207, "relative_strength": -19.357858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.182523, "energy": 79.704093, "activity_lines": [ 166.11255, 172.085194, 178.113145, 182.259096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }