{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62219f4e-416f-482b-ae76-045fcd257565", "symbol": "CEBR5", "name": "Companhia Energ\u00e9tica de Bras\u00edlia - CEB", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.162, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.621, "architecture_energy": 50.023, "architecture_maturity": 50.981, "architecture_confidence": 89.551, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.18, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 8.45, "deceleration": 59.86, "rotation_down": 49.48, "downward_expansion": 81.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.878109, 23.916712, 24.924312, 25.842653 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.790001, "trend_reference": 26.781209, "distance_from_trend": -0.111691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.33073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.025157, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141017, "excess_performance": -0.083969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372706, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37200, "relative_activity": 1.612833, "balance": 0.616778, "dry_up": 3.122697, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053333, "annualized_volatility": 0.229374, "from_high_reference": -0.19267, "from_low_reference": 0.423103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.781209, "fair_value_reference": 17.33073, "structural_low": 22.543161, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009509, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.010298, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.313208, "worst_return": -0.178592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005688, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132931, "worst_return": -0.277275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.105961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129518, "worst_return": -0.287046, "sufficient": false }, 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"fair_value": 17.050374, "relative_strength": -9.033768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.068123, "energy": 63.131691, "activity_lines": [ 23.80238, 24.185898, 25.642477, 26.399906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5, "volume": 80100, "typical_volume": 18630.0, "trend": 26.911387, "fair_value": 17.14668, "relative_strength": -4.847909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.44579, "energy": 51.535534, "activity_lines": [ 24.055598, 24.14023, 25.425761, 26.242513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.77, "volume": 81300, "typical_volume": 21705.0, "trend": 26.846454, "fair_value": 17.238574, "relative_strength": -9.790628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.560526, "energy": 51.550989, "activity_lines": [ 23.951015, 23.998562, 25.162756, 26.039843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.790001, "volume": 37200, "typical_volume": 23065.0, "trend": 26.781209, "fair_value": 17.33073, "relative_strength": -7.025157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.621115, "energy": 50.022513, "activity_lines": [ 23.878109, 23.916712, 24.924312, 25.842653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }