{ "ticker": { "uuid": "622ac3d8-a2e9-41bd-873b-357c1268f3ca", "symbol": "SAPR3", "name": "Companhia de Saneamento do Paran\u00e1 - SANEPAR", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.612, "architecture_energy": 79.949, "architecture_maturity": 30.737, "architecture_confidence": 92.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.28, "rotation_up": 16.53, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 74.37, "downward_expansion": 95.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.915333, 8.147455, 8.454905, 8.84 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.43, "trend_reference": 9.395667, "distance_from_trend": -0.20921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.295747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.384481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338968, "excess_performance": -0.28192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006551, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 761000, "relative_activity": 1.290804, "balance": 0.259496, "dry_up": 0.913994, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077234, "annualized_volatility": 0.491288, "from_high_reference": -0.369805, "from_low_reference": 0.098746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.395667, "fair_value_reference": 6.295747, "structural_low": 7.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002667, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.016963, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.099415, "worst_return": -0.062972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03485, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028451, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160819, "worst_return": -0.075217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.071633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056985, "worst_return": -0.128794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.07, "volume": 770800, "typical_volume": 641615.0, "trend": 9.505, "fair_value": 6.243722, "relative_strength": -11.820674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.287991, "energy": 57.473647, "activity_lines": [ 8.301333, 8.384545, 8.69719, 9.065849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.05, "volume": 379300, "typical_volume": 602875.0, "trend": 9.475667, "fair_value": 6.272518, "relative_strength": -13.645311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.747827, "energy": 62.615712, "activity_lines": [ 8.195333, 8.320182, 8.603714, 8.971978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.43, "volume": 761000, "typical_volume": 589555.0, "trend": 9.395667, "fair_value": 6.295747, "relative_strength": -17.384481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.611705, "energy": 79.949311, "activity_lines": [ 7.915333, 8.147455, 8.454905, 8.84 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }