{ "ticker": { "uuid": "622dcfc6-d434-4413-9a3f-e539a8a554e7", "symbol": "600107", "name": "Hubei Mailyard Share Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.345, "architecture_energy": 76.67, "architecture_maturity": 16.426, "architecture_confidence": 82.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.64, "rotation_up": 10.96, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 75.99, "downward_expansion": 90.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.270667, 5.595636, 5.873857, 5.929312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.11, "trend_reference": 6.049667, "distance_from_trend": -0.155325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.239615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.302103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14975, "excess_performance": -0.106547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155325, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201572, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6832291, "relative_activity": 0.393674, "balance": 0.201572, "dry_up": 0.472296, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102363, "annualized_volatility": 0.454768, "from_high_reference": -0.458686, "from_low_reference": 0.310256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.049667, "fair_value_reference": 5.239615, "structural_low": 4.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.04579, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.022331, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.2493, "worst_return": -0.244851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032491, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.045621, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.716923, "worst_return": -0.237089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074007, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.079104, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.059322, "worst_return": -0.382979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.265537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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19151761.35, "trend": 6.214333, "fair_value": 5.244359, "relative_strength": -7.06398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.286534, "energy": 30.678498, "activity_lines": [ 5.982, 6.109636, 6.126667, 6.127828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 8837898, "typical_volume": 18431974.9, "trend": 6.162, "fair_value": 5.243269, "relative_strength": -15.093346, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.599646, "energy": 55.611566, "activity_lines": [ 5.701333, 5.921636, 6.04419, 6.061742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.11, "volume": 7020452, "typical_volume": 18006501.95, "trend": 6.110667, "fair_value": 5.241538, "relative_strength": -16.89658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.09336, "energy": 69.365858, "activity_lines": [ 5.461333, 5.745091, 5.957524, 5.993871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.11, "volume": 6832291, "typical_volume": 17355178.95, "trend": 6.049667, "fair_value": 5.239615, "relative_strength": -19.302103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.345125, "energy": 76.669547, "activity_lines": [ 5.270667, 5.595636, 5.873857, 5.929312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }