{ "ticker": { "uuid": "622e358b-49e2-4a8b-8b3d-845341d2a02e", "symbol": "6158", "name": "P-Two Industries Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.639, "architecture_energy": 67.262, "architecture_maturity": 77.418, "architecture_confidence": 83.864, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.3, "rotation_up": 13.21, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 34.81, "rotation_down": 72.57, "downward_expansion": 89.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.016666, 17.542727, 17.843571, 18.141183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.549999, "trend_reference": 18.758333, "distance_from_trend": -0.117726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.742538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.357095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.477669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.200483, "excess_performance": -0.641855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070296, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.357095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.444777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01533, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200483, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347129, "relative_activity": 0.733912, "balance": 0.904839, "dry_up": 0.580228, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069254, "annualized_volatility": 0.322459, "from_high_reference": -0.335341, "from_low_reference": 0.015337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.758333, "fair_value_reference": 25.742538, "structural_low": 16.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.002721, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.029422, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.151713, "worst_return": -0.181329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.026348, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.098412, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.06087, "worst_return": -0.187279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073913, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.160268, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.557072, "worst_return": -0.173709, 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18.147273, 18.228333, 18.566452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.6, "volume": 276002, "typical_volume": 485849.95, "trend": 19.09, "fair_value": 25.927547, "relative_strength": -39.516186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.38948, "energy": 21.840359, "activity_lines": [ 18.063333, 18.061818, 18.161667, 18.461075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 307570, "typical_volume": 471488.2, "trend": 18.918333, "fair_value": 25.82686, "relative_strength": -43.742759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.09132, "energy": 57.106461, "activity_lines": [ 17.433333, 17.784546, 17.995952, 18.293979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 347129, "typical_volume": 472984.2, "trend": 18.758333, "fair_value": 25.742538, "relative_strength": -44.477669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.639376, "energy": 67.261907, "activity_lines": [ 17.016666, 17.542727, 17.843571, 18.141183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }