{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62308093-a6b0-4d7a-b163-01c036d74b58", "symbol": "CIGI", "name": "Colliers International Group Inc Bats", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.888, "architecture_energy": 15.17, "architecture_maturity": 29.037, "architecture_confidence": 66.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.54, "rotation_up": 32.0, "upward_expansion": 19.37, "deceleration": 43.56, "rotation_down": 19.09, "downward_expansion": 51.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.723333, 98.354073, 98.364837, 101.199013 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 101.54, "trend_reference": 107.865217, "distance_from_trend": -0.05864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 125.173025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.317699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.273261, "excess_performance": -0.460714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130669, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089891, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.186518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1148296, "relative_activity": 0.910992, "balance": 1.186518, "dry_up": 0.889598, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075019, "annualized_volatility": 0.431156, "from_high_reference": -0.40736, "from_low_reference": 0.15074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.865217, "fair_value_reference": 125.173025, "structural_low": 88.238878, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003388, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.00907, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.099838, "worst_return": -0.234044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01361, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.076844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311311, "worst_return": -0.286041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011032, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023201, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.37158, "worst_return": -0.107583, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.814881, "energy": 35.614314, "activity_lines": [ 95.973906, 95.584575, 98.816532, 104.263468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.92, "volume": 968492, "typical_volume": 1341127.25, "trend": 112.639461, "fair_value": 125.302367, "relative_strength": -30.746027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.378754, "energy": 23.591881, "activity_lines": [ 98.1372, 96.758994, 98.78293, 103.476877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.49, "volume": 1125428, "typical_volume": 1319001.4, "trend": 110.90155, "fair_value": 125.291566, "relative_strength": -32.004663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.976549, "energy": 19.515381, "activity_lines": [ 98.51146, 97.065276, 98.40747, 102.499492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.55, "volume": 1243101, "typical_volume": 1281312.35, "trend": 109.345884, "fair_value": 125.221087, "relative_strength": -30.816899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.022793, "energy": 16.966258, "activity_lines": [ 98.817333, 97.461797, 98.221344, 101.702618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.54, "volume": 1148296, "typical_volume": 1260489.8, "trend": 107.865217, "fair_value": 125.173025, "relative_strength": -31.317699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.888349, "energy": 15.170338, "activity_lines": [ 99.723333, 98.354073, 98.364837, 101.199013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }