{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6235617f-5bad-44e6-9b87-7aed55dc0954", "symbol": "YCS", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHS ULRASHRT YEN", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.436, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.835, "architecture_energy": 22.178, "architecture_maturity": 80.508, "architecture_confidence": 64.767, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.24, "rotation_up": 35.38, "upward_expansion": 67.28, "deceleration": 82.11, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 17.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.275667, 55.597964, 54.986323, 54.363606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.55, "trend_reference": 53.399433, "distance_from_trend": 0.00282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.620686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200116, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.122023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038797, "excess_performance": -0.086828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200116, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317448, "relative_activity": 2.101698, "balance": 1.220839, "dry_up": 1.132089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02826, "annualized_volatility": 0.166561, "from_high_reference": -0.075449, "from_low_reference": 0.24767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.399433, "fair_value_reference": 44.620686, "structural_low": 48.565, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.02248, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.004873, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.135591, "worst_return": -0.116409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.068723, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.042153, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.215765, "worst_return": -0.257199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.131206, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.037915, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.372734, "worst_return": -0.111864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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52.81405, "fair_value": 44.04935, "relative_strength": 1.206881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.794318, "energy": 73.374642, "activity_lines": [ 55.893233, 55.297051, 54.41778, 53.69996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.68, "volume": 94817, "typical_volume": 145612.1, "trend": 52.98805, "fair_value": 44.201145, "relative_strength": 3.651592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.21276, "energy": 75.990218, "activity_lines": [ 56.221267, 55.661778, 54.690956, 53.949377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.815, "volume": 79742, "typical_volume": 140407.2, "trend": 53.22428, "fair_value": 44.362028, "relative_strength": 6.10626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.919269, "energy": 83.368151, "activity_lines": [ 56.8003, 56.149113, 55.045894, 54.260793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.61, "volume": 191972, "typical_volume": 146022.15, "trend": 53.342113, "fair_value": 44.499779, "relative_strength": -0.916411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.869112, "energy": 48.284304, "activity_lines": [ 56.167333, 55.976538, 55.069156, 54.350194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.55, "volume": 317448, "typical_volume": 151043.55, "trend": 53.399433, "fair_value": 44.620686, "relative_strength": -6.122023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.834926, "energy": 22.17835, "activity_lines": [ 55.275667, 55.597964, 54.986323, 54.363606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }