{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6236dcc0-17c5-43d5-9012-24a48daf160b", "symbol": "WNER", "name": "WisdomTree New Economy Real Estate UCITS ETF - USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.809, "architecture_energy": 24.112, "architecture_maturity": 65.908, "architecture_confidence": 80.49, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.27, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 47.7, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 44.14, "downward_expansion": 30.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.314333, 25.648211, 25.791001, 25.375126 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.09, "trend_reference": 24.808478, "distance_from_trend": 0.011348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.01046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.91971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106749, "excess_performance": -0.064143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25, "relative_activity": 0.093967, "balance": 0.932498, "dry_up": 1.279835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022048, "annualized_volatility": 0.206452, "from_high_reference": -0.090448, "from_low_reference": 0.273848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.808478, "fair_value_reference": 20.01046, "structural_low": 22.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004125, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.019275, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050513, "worst_return": -0.044063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096445, "worst_return": -0.035492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.251104, "worst_return": -0.046466, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 42.881114, "energy": 34.866555, "activity_lines": [ 26.089316, 26.253722, 25.817968, 25.271642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.545, "volume": 824, "typical_volume": 239.55, "trend": 24.630485, "fair_value": 19.914786, "relative_strength": -3.929874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.963534, "energy": 26.612454, "activity_lines": [ 25.885813, 26.107279, 25.850733, 25.337533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.855, "volume": 513, "typical_volume": 265.2, "trend": 24.731812, "fair_value": 19.96187, "relative_strength": -7.127581, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.588497, "energy": 17.437016, "activity_lines": [ 25.525, 25.8392, 25.811284, 25.352017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.09, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 266.05, "trend": 24.808478, "fair_value": 20.01046, "relative_strength": -8.91971, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.80934, "energy": 24.112281, "activity_lines": [ 25.314333, 25.648211, 25.791001, 25.375126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }