{ "ticker": { "uuid": "623924bc-d175-483e-98a6-d82304cdb374", "symbol": "BLTE", "name": "Belite Bio Inc ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.858, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.265, "architecture_energy": 15.307, "architecture_maturity": 12.045, "architecture_confidence": 75.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.37, "rotation_up": 38.81, "upward_expansion": 32.73, "deceleration": 40.76, "rotation_down": 15.22, "downward_expansion": 41.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.284, 153.045636, 150.974381, 154.152495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 163.05, "trend_reference": 158.935833, "distance_from_trend": 0.025886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.573718, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.049043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.210445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.132066, "excess_performance": -0.31952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.049043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052104, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132066, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 698799, "relative_activity": 0.802443, "balance": 1.642501, "dry_up": 0.908225, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082259, "annualized_volatility": 0.340716, "from_high_reference": -0.18475, "from_low_reference": 1.7175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.935833, "fair_value_reference": 79.573718, "structural_low": 130.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003603, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0544, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.110963, "worst_return": -0.160798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052221, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.166751, "worst_return": -0.117058, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.435811, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.271452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.84145, "worst_return": 0.030173, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.320126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027993, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.3, "volume": 687646, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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145.74, 144.813818, 150.631905, 155.432505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 149.33, "volume": 1026456, "typical_volume": 904944.25, "trend": 159.051167, "fair_value": 76.139103, "relative_strength": -0.066143, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.631637, "energy": 19.012968, "activity_lines": [ 147.317333, 145.470182, 149.892667, 154.822559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 150.08, "volume": 676502, "typical_volume": 885181.75, "trend": 158.853833, "fair_value": 76.989167, "relative_strength": 3.759437, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.415618, "energy": 17.745282, "activity_lines": [ 148.746, 146.363273, 149.375429, 154.243774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.36, "volume": 889202, "typical_volume": 867814.5, "trend": 158.8015, "fair_value": 77.817756, "relative_strength": 6.625026, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.228309, "energy": 16.512335, "activity_lines": [ 150.473333, 147.94, 149.362095, 153.889333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.61, "volume": 899170, "typical_volume": 879957.05, "trend": 158.7795, "fair_value": 78.679038, "relative_strength": 8.56554, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.121719, "energy": 10.71919, "activity_lines": [ 153.468, 150.282909, 149.943714, 153.876978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.05, "volume": 698799, "typical_volume": 870839.85, "trend": 158.935833, "fair_value": 79.573718, "relative_strength": 5.210445, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.264895, "energy": 15.307126, "activity_lines": [ 157.284, 153.045636, 150.974381, 154.152495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }