{ "ticker": { "uuid": "623a15c5-0f3c-4911-b18b-a73fe672614b", "symbol": "MART", "name": "Global X Equal Weight Canadian Groceries & Staples Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.736, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.573, "architecture_energy": 40.114, "architecture_maturity": 30.519, "architecture_confidence": 40.509, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.0, "rotation_up": 45.54, "upward_expansion": 74.26, "deceleration": 72.09, "rotation_down": 22.2, "downward_expansion": 5.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.046, 25.018364, 24.55719, 24.374193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.98, "trend_reference": 24.204333, "distance_from_trend": 0.032047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.032983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084532, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.43617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021677, "excess_performance": -0.098744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067668, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258873, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.344234, "balance": 0.258873, "dry_up": 2.129948, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026206, "annualized_volatility": 0.146131, "from_high_reference": -0.029149, "from_low_reference": 0.120569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.204333, "fair_value_reference": 23.032983, "structural_low": 22.889999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.000801, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029673, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.000801, "worst_return": 0.000801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000801, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 19.998188, "volume": 2100, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.718252, "energy": 11.005367, "activity_lines": [ 23.684, 23.552, 23.712047, 23.826331 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 5630.0, "trend": 23.995094, "fair_value": 22.839897, "relative_strength": -7.683045, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.962529, "energy": 25.052448, "activity_lines": [ 24.113999, 23.778181, 23.801428, 23.880092 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4885.0, "trend": 24.009522, "fair_value": 22.861922, "relative_strength": -7.731602, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.815007, "energy": 45.262372, "activity_lines": [ 24.398, 23.972182, 23.876762, 23.924925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 25.73, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4645.0, "trend": 24.045983, "fair_value": 22.895664, "relative_strength": -3.493548, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.803183, "energy": 77.155457, "activity_lines": [ 24.926667, 24.337636, 24.041809, 24.035924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 24.73, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 4450.0, "trend": 24.052103, "fair_value": 22.916993, "relative_strength": -7.519979, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.037384, "energy": 77.191028, "activity_lines": [ 24.974667, 24.479636, 24.105524, 24.080054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.959999, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 4460.0, "trend": 24.092155, "fair_value": 22.940476, "relative_strength": -6.391466, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.935981, "energy": 75.718496, "activity_lines": [ 25.006, 24.634545, 24.192428, 24.138628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.139999, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 4220.0, "trend": 24.124243, "fair_value": 22.965471, "relative_strength": -5.187208, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.232452, "energy": 73.27433, "activity_lines": [ 25.058666, 24.797091, 24.296, 24.20623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 42700, "typical_volume": 6135.0, "trend": 24.140333, "fair_value": 22.984847, "relative_strength": -6.733179, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.535257, "energy": 41.961475, "activity_lines": [ 24.938667, 24.841818, 24.355476, 24.242731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.370001, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5890.0, "trend": 24.172, "fair_value": 23.011349, "relative_strength": -3.363959, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.893945, "energy": 47.456204, "activity_lines": [ 25.045334, 24.982364, 24.477762, 24.322064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.98, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5810.0, "trend": 24.204333, "fair_value": 23.032983, "relative_strength": -7.43617, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.57315, "energy": 40.113969, "activity_lines": [ 25.046, 25.018364, 24.55719, 24.374193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }