{ "ticker": { "uuid": "623a8e10-874c-4bf2-9a6f-948a3b5fffe1", "symbol": "139290", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Consumer Discretionary ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.73, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.277, "architecture_energy": 45.853, "architecture_maturity": 10.539, "architecture_confidence": 76.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.25, "rotation_up": 14.93, "upward_expansion": 23.12, "deceleration": 52.0, "rotation_down": 70.16, "downward_expansion": 55.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 26229.333333, 27409.181818, 28960.235231, 28835.017011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 26140.0, "trend_reference": 28466.872396, "distance_from_trend": -0.08174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18307.480375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.923754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010523, "excess_performance": -0.219306, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.427832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010523, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.435295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53412, "relative_activity": 0.578803, "balance": 1.435295, "dry_up": 0.915019, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120387, "annualized_volatility": 0.513351, "from_high_reference": -0.279195, "from_low_reference": 0.543718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28466.872396, "fair_value_reference": 18307.480375, "structural_low": 23380.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013041, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034921, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.08609, "worst_return": -0.012824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009467, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264345, "worst_return": -0.054476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020606, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225594, "worst_return": -0.071715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03806, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.347247, 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"fair_value": 18307.480375, "relative_strength": -10.923754, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.276658, "energy": 45.853411, "activity_lines": [ 26229.333333, 27409.181818, 28960.235231, 28835.017011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }