{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "623c8915-55ed-41e6-929f-fa94c84328db",
    "symbol": "SPMO",
    "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P 500 MOMENTUM ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.665,
    "architecture_energy": 22.396,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.746,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.905,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.31,
        "rotation_up": 26.9,
        "upward_expansion": 58.06,
        "deceleration": 88.29,
        "rotation_down": 28.98,
        "downward_expansion": 19.4
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        146.764813,
        140.865156
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 149.69,
    "trend_reference": 133.434471,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.121824,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 98.392322,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.521359,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.302889,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.252584,
    "excess_performance": 0.126959,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.121824,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084722,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.521359,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065351,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053029,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037076,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.252584,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.016518,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10937381,
      "relative_activity": 1.056814,
      "balance": 1.016518,
      "dry_up": 1.115149,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 6
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.066912,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.250746,
      "from_high_reference": -0.077696,
      "from_low_reference": 0.395841
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 133.434471,
      "fair_value_reference": 98.392322,
      "structural_low": 107.24,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.011509,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000647,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.046261,
        "worst_return": -0.05285,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.035924,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004802,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.159575,
        "worst_return": -0.056951,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.079021,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010611,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.367437,
        "worst_return": -0.043074,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.166357,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027693,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.263568,
        "worst_return": -0.158052,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.000655,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.072157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040204,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.068237,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024307,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.134265,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.042357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.118122,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 12249907,
        "typical_volume": 9928837.7,
        "trend": 130.769154,
        "fair_value": 96.647461,
        "relative_strength": 5.696542,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 40.40074,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 146.51,
        "volume": 9737250,
        "typical_volume": 9989644.7,
        "trend": 131.618133,
        "fair_value": 97.231371,
        "relative_strength": 8.063681,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.867704,
        "energy": 30.588613,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 143.83,
        "volume": 13239911,
        "typical_volume": 10188951.25,
        "trend": 132.434619,
        "fair_value": 97.799474,
        "relative_strength": 4.830692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.786206,
        "energy": 21.742687,
        "activity_lines": [
          146.346,
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          139.751906
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 149.69,
        "volume": 10937381,
        "typical_volume": 10349388.3,
        "trend": 133.434471,
        "fair_value": 98.392322,
        "relative_strength": 5.302889,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.664779,
        "energy": 22.395934,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}