{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6241db8d-acee-413d-8002-67271c7f7df5",
    "symbol": "RNL",
    "name": "Renault SA",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 73.466,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -16.833,
    "architecture_energy": 10.03,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.487,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.482,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.64,
        "rotation_up": 27.81,
        "upward_expansion": 14.7,
        "deceleration": 42.11,
        "rotation_down": 27.72,
        "downward_expansion": 62.36
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.285999,
        26.953454,
        27.33615,
        27.533613
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 28.719999,
    "trend_reference": 27.966219,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.026953,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 34.753784,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173615,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.046814,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.000705,
    "excess_performance": -0.063935,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026953,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.068,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.173615,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010221,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110468,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014405,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000705,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.247164,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 74705,
      "relative_activity": 2.258948,
      "balance": 1.247164,
      "dry_up": 1.762013,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059085,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.351805,
      "from_high_reference": -0.18141,
      "from_low_reference": 0.148338
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 27.966219,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.753784,
      "structural_low": 25.010063,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 25,
        "median_return": 0.033624,
        "positive_rate": 0.68,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.28,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006175,
        "regime_survival": 0.64,
        "best_return": 0.160626,
        "worst_return": -0.206216,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.025257,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.363636,
        "median_excess_return": 0.065782,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.348217,
        "worst_return": -0.117168,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.06897,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.285714,
        "median_excess_return": 0.044895,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.369863,
        "worst_return": -0.103108,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.08624,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01628,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.361449,
        "worst_return": -0.170442,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.189896,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0706,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016311,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.06906,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "return": 0.047782,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0278,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.091636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.096109,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.068805,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "trend": 30.617733,
        "fair_value": 35.077847,
        "relative_strength": -16.385061,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "energy": 25.561677,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 34178.55,
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        "fair_value": 35.077261,
        "relative_strength": -16.09009,
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        "energy": 22.860835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 36820.85,
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        "relative_strength": -12.487352,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 28.389999,
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        "typical_volume": 37765.3,
        "trend": 30.202343,
        "fair_value": 35.077085,
        "relative_strength": -10.880229,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 21.097908,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 39252.1,
        "trend": 30.065709,
        "fair_value": 35.073398,
        "relative_strength": -15.186676,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 22.750763,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 29.540001,
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        "typical_volume": 39126.0,
        "trend": 30.006664,
        "fair_value": 35.085979,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 37749.65,
        "trend": 29.844752,
        "fair_value": 35.081843,
        "relative_strength": -16.415438,
        "stage": 4,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 27.799999,
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        "typical_volume": 34636.65,
        "trend": 29.648397,
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        "relative_strength": -12.015562,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.191553,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 26.02,
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        "typical_volume": 31701.55,
        "trend": 29.320553,
        "fair_value": 34.993355,
        "relative_strength": -16.632215,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.710464,
        "energy": 46.353488,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.252,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 26.360001,
        "volume": 3431,
        "typical_volume": 30587.85,
        "trend": 29.046768,
        "fair_value": 34.956212,
        "relative_strength": -18.477415,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.639556,
        "energy": 50.587252,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.889999,
        "volume": 58322,
        "typical_volume": 30911.35,
        "trend": 28.758556,
        "fair_value": 34.912364,
        "relative_strength": -16.96057,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.82774,
        "energy": 58.085373,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.456666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.129999,
        "volume": 31640,
        "typical_volume": 31288.75,
        "trend": 28.507154,
        "fair_value": 34.864832,
        "relative_strength": -15.08452,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.392644,
        "energy": 60.652262,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.225333,
          26.804727,
          27.35113,
          27.708506
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.1,
        "volume": 49343,
        "typical_volume": 29931.0,
        "trend": 28.27489,
        "fair_value": 34.810928,
        "relative_strength": -15.714608,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.589051,
        "energy": 55.252027,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.095333,
          26.591636,
          27.22452,
          27.553206
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.31,
        "volume": 77396,
        "typical_volume": 31360.65,
        "trend": 28.058794,
        "fair_value": 34.7758,
        "relative_strength": -13.346579,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.210189,
        "energy": 32.893432,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.498666,
          26.640182,
          27.215039,
          27.490955
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.719999,
        "volume": 74705,
        "typical_volume": 33070.7,
        "trend": 27.966219,
        "fair_value": 34.753784,
        "relative_strength": -11.046814,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -16.832759,
        "energy": 10.02999,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.285999,
          26.953454,
          27.33615,
          27.533613
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}