{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6241f638-3d10-4922-b3e9-9690805dba8a", "symbol": "VISACHROME", "name": "VISA Chrome Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.05, "architecture_energy": 41.767, "architecture_maturity": 5.468, "architecture_confidence": 78.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 15.16, "upward_expansion": 22.87, "deceleration": 51.64, "rotation_down": 64.42, "downward_expansion": 52.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.078001, 39.355455, 41.502096, 40.544151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.990002, "trend_reference": 39.711333, "distance_from_trend": -0.043346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.057244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.202013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023989, "excess_performance": 0.067698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.52425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388459, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70082, "relative_activity": 0.438625, "balance": 0.388459, "dry_up": 0.881457, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11827, "annualized_volatility": 0.605303, "from_high_reference": -0.484392, "from_low_reference": 0.404436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.711333, "fair_value_reference": 32.057244, "structural_low": 27.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095646, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.085766, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.228814, "worst_return": -0.220162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119284, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.112186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275424, "worst_return": 0.059932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.177966, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.043721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36448, "worst_return": -0.012039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.005302, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.010603, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020868, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.221127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.478503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.85, "volume": 6061, "typical_volume": 611279.55, "trend": 12.603333, "fair_value": 12.191667, "relative_strength": 9.566824, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.582582, "energy": 13.30182, "activity_lines": [ 40.749333, 42.468, 42.286809, 41.109871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.900002, "volume": 166656, "typical_volume": 165447.5, "trend": 40.507333, "fair_value": 31.789039, "relative_strength": -11.555957, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.261972, "energy": 23.678828, "activity_lines": [ 39.364001, 41.107637, 41.971524, 40.852452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.75, "volume": 73189, "typical_volume": 163749.55, "trend": 40.011333, "fair_value": 31.920449, "relative_strength": -11.9331, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.991083, "energy": 29.279853, "activity_lines": [ 38.567334, 40.097818, 41.733857, 40.674559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.990002, "volume": 70082, "typical_volume": 159776.4, "trend": 39.711333, "fair_value": 32.057244, "relative_strength": -12.202013, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.04983, "energy": 41.766502, "activity_lines": [ 38.078001, 39.355455, 41.502096, 40.544151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }