{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6242b9cd-7597-4c76-b80a-2f7ff33ec886", "symbol": "AUCO", "name": "L&G Gold Mining UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.22, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.057, "architecture_energy": 24.214, "architecture_maturity": 43.759, "architecture_confidence": 60.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.99, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 62.84, "rotation_down": 35.77, "downward_expansion": 65.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.645999, 85.824727, 88.809952, 92.224882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 98.639999, "trend_reference": 96.925, "distance_from_trend": 0.017694, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.546218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.775818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.99059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03972, "excess_performance": -0.210611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017694, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.775818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145755, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49288, "relative_activity": 0.853298, "balance": 0.587155, "dry_up": 0.492999, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07548, "annualized_volatility": 0.574661, "from_high_reference": -0.23428, "from_low_reference": 0.651155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.925, "fair_value_reference": 55.546218, "structural_low": 76.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.040883, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.000124, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.163578, "worst_return": -0.074395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05071, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.031974, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.355692, "worst_return": -0.063662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132999, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269387, "worst_return": -0.008398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.986771, "energy": 61.382534, "activity_lines": [ 82.696666, 84.71509, 89.415857, 93.25929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.470001, "volume": 22521, "typical_volume": 64246.85, "trend": 96.915, "fair_value": 55.080994, "relative_strength": -21.750252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.584504, "energy": 69.03825, "activity_lines": [ 81.258666, 83.416545, 88.146333, 92.113591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.639999, "volume": 49288, "typical_volume": 57761.75, "trend": 96.925, "fair_value": 55.546218, "relative_strength": -5.99059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.057378, "energy": 24.213753, "activity_lines": [ 86.645999, 85.824727, 88.809952, 92.224882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }