{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6245b858-06f8-40c0-a3cb-218397146824", "symbol": "UMI", "name": "CI U.S. MidCap Dividend Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.131, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.273, "architecture_energy": 75.512, "architecture_maturity": 34.06, "architecture_confidence": 57.973, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 79.48, "upward_expansion": 89.85, "deceleration": 50.02, "rotation_down": 11.44, "downward_expansion": 14.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.824002, 36.536818, 36.043899, 35.694734 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.150002, "trend_reference": 35.355538, "distance_from_trend": 0.050755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.831548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.217182, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056761, "excess_performance": -0.063661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050755, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 1.212121, "balance": 0.875, "dry_up": 1.363636, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014195, "annualized_volatility": 0.105389, "from_high_reference": -0.012756, "from_low_reference": 0.168716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.355538, "fair_value_reference": 31.831548, "structural_low": 32.846779, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.003929, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.068891, "worst_return": -0.097113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003573, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.002958, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.062238, "worst_return": -0.082328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059802, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.023175, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094521, "worst_return": -0.075964, "sufficient": true }, { 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59.134936, "energy": 36.929294, "activity_lines": [ 35.265903, 35.218977, 34.968305, 34.811285 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 35.871555, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 34.545608, "fair_value": 31.349599, "relative_strength": -6.008782, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.649466, "energy": 61.412596, "activity_lines": [ 35.48813, 35.362498, 35.058901, 34.903635 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.652645, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 34.674462, "fair_value": 31.411256, "relative_strength": -6.386707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.343111, "energy": 67.53269, "activity_lines": [ 35.592942, 35.430735, 35.122771, 34.975057 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 36.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 34.766468, "fair_value": 31.473335, "relative_strength": -4.854317, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.081109, "energy": 80.777929, "activity_lines": [ 35.81178, 35.575534, 35.227558, 35.069607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 34.863799, "fair_value": 31.537513, "relative_strength": -4.878408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.194306, "energy": 87.772414, "activity_lines": [ 36.004328, 35.725605, 35.340985, 35.167254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.09, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 34.935011, "fair_value": 31.59543, "relative_strength": -5.185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.705621, "energy": 83.714556, "activity_lines": [ 36.077789, 35.824116, 35.433659, 35.246364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.0, "trend": 35.044765, "fair_value": 31.654937, "relative_strength": -2.678973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.140398, "energy": 94.502004, "activity_lines": [ 36.37551, 36.059415, 35.603095, 35.373138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 155.0, "trend": 35.138668, "fair_value": 31.710279, "relative_strength": -3.984343, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.744546, "energy": 80.621493, "activity_lines": [ 36.438001, 36.172985, 35.720627, 35.460572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.880001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 155.0, "trend": 35.261835, "fair_value": 31.769718, "relative_strength": -2.054341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.890351, "energy": 73.611261, "activity_lines": [ 36.610668, 36.347031, 35.877232, 35.572917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.150002, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 165.0, "trend": 35.355538, "fair_value": 31.831548, "relative_strength": -4.217182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.273098, "energy": 75.512272, "activity_lines": [ 36.824002, 36.536818, 36.043899, 35.694734 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }