{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6247bee8-58b0-42e3-a88b-503832070c25", "symbol": "MEMX", "name": "MATTHEWS ASIAN FUNDS EMERGING MARKETS EX CHINA ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.55, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.792, "architecture_energy": 16.157, "architecture_maturity": 65.048, "architecture_confidence": 86.014, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.38, "rotation_up": 16.62, "upward_expansion": 44.88, "deceleration": 87.82, "rotation_down": 41.45, "downward_expansion": 29.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.754953, 46.664611, 46.792813, 45.76614 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.6696, "trend_reference": 44.408223, "distance_from_trend": 0.050922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.604503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.120057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1137, "excess_performance": -0.011925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476676, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041201, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157018, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1137, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.166465, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12432, "relative_activity": 0.919833, "balance": 1.166465, "dry_up": 1.429414, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064612, "annualized_volatility": 0.313148, "from_high_reference": -0.094146, "from_low_reference": 0.503494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.408223, "fair_value_reference": 31.604503, "structural_low": 38.07, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023578, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.313686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011079, "active": false }, { "regime": 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12.671971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.291215, "energy": 50.056898, "activity_lines": [ 48.78332, 48.312096, 46.403127, 45.018711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.04, "volume": 5099, "typical_volume": 17088.0, "trend": 43.383823, "fair_value": 31.084726, "relative_strength": 11.267544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.488628, "energy": 45.911737, "activity_lines": [ 48.627013, 48.358607, 46.711174, 45.346911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.02, "volume": 36457, "typical_volume": 17778.8, "trend": 43.67633, "fair_value": 31.211839, "relative_strength": 5.555935, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.680437, "energy": 20.789524, "activity_lines": [ 47.321407, 47.798987, 46.712895, 45.452471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.9689, "volume": 11927, "typical_volume": 15937.45, "trend": 43.936827, "fair_value": 31.335569, "relative_strength": 5.680875, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.845457, "energy": 19.330501, "activity_lines": [ 46.235633, 47.288638, 46.708726, 45.535863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.9974, "volume": 16461, "typical_volume": 14338.85, "trend": 44.16087, "fair_value": 31.463605, "relative_strength": 4.255811, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.152724, "energy": 17.798159, "activity_lines": [ 45.585173, 46.806855, 46.684697, 45.604287 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.6696, "volume": 12432, "typical_volume": 13515.5, "trend": 44.408223, "fair_value": 31.604503, "relative_strength": 4.120057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.792488, "energy": 16.156756, "activity_lines": [ 45.754953, 46.664611, 46.792813, 45.76614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }