{ "ticker": { "uuid": "62494306-2779-4996-9e13-dcba302af6fd", "symbol": "NELLY", "name": "Nelly Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.957, "architecture_energy": 58.949, "architecture_maturity": 85.983, "architecture_confidence": 89.909, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.93, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 35.96, "rotation_down": 46.1, "downward_expansion": 65.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.981334, 35.654909, 37.503095, 43.324408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.66, "trend_reference": 56.225, "distance_from_trend": -0.383548, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.955387, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.494022, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.729219, "excess_performance": -0.790713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.383548, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.57494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.729219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 769706, "relative_activity": 0.535525, "balance": 0.460816, "dry_up": 0.801726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086156, "annualized_volatility": 1.309186, "from_high_reference": -0.744395, "from_low_reference": 0.149204 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.225, "fair_value_reference": 40.955387, "structural_low": 30.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021959, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.011612, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.277433, "worst_return": -0.461862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.092622, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.077588, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.708333, "worst_return": -0.486095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.244005, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.177988, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.453686, "worst_return": -0.472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -54.219068, "energy": 58.702299, "activity_lines": [ 35.192, 35.07709, 40.651381, 50.188365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.540001, "volume": 2250493, "typical_volume": 1533940.65, "trend": 63.842333, "fair_value": 40.467018, "relative_strength": -57.072394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.180737, "energy": 57.19927, "activity_lines": [ 35.068, 34.964727, 39.561714, 48.135613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.779999, "volume": 1092813, "typical_volume": 1507965.8, "trend": 61.355, "fair_value": 40.624139, "relative_strength": -53.408251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.511369, "energy": 49.802143, "activity_lines": [ 36.074667, 35.470909, 38.902333, 46.454172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.040001, "volume": 496242, "typical_volume": 1460207.0, "trend": 58.856333, "fair_value": 40.793029, "relative_strength": -54.329745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.940415, "energy": 64.253951, "activity_lines": [ 36.544, 35.790182, 38.269238, 44.885462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.66, "volume": 769706, "typical_volume": 1437291.15, "trend": 56.225, "fair_value": 40.955387, "relative_strength": -57.494022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.956668, "energy": 58.949371, "activity_lines": [ 35.981334, 35.654909, 37.503095, 43.324408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }