{ "ticker": { "uuid": "624cb50a-8c1c-43be-90da-4328355f1488", "symbol": "002154", "name": "Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 62.375, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.416, "architecture_energy": 18.868, "architecture_maturity": 29.889, "architecture_confidence": 57.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.1, "rotation_up": 41.95, "upward_expansion": 59.05, "deceleration": 63.06, "rotation_down": 23.52, "downward_expansion": 18.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.865333, 3.820364, 3.864275, 3.833585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 3.808518, "distance_from_trend": 0.076534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.30347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047281, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.66935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06018, "excess_performance": 0.05278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076534, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047281, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06018, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231552915, "relative_activity": 1.810018, "balance": 0.785795, "dry_up": 1.338378, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067408, "annualized_volatility": 0.335778, "from_high_reference": -0.148899, "from_low_reference": 0.220721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.808518, "fair_value_reference": 4.30347, "structural_low": 3.35867, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.05652, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.129433, "worst_return": -0.056701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132979, "worst_return": -0.221623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014184, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037406, "worst_return": -0.180936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.66, "volume": 138776686, "typical_volume": 113556360.85, "trend": 3.798955, "fair_value": 4.331622, "relative_strength": -4.499252, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.584382, "energy": 22.869222, "activity_lines": [ 3.716, 3.817073, 3.840978, 3.818318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.6, "volume": 159811333, "typical_volume": 116363949.1, "trend": 3.789406, "fair_value": 4.323105, "relative_strength": -6.039846, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.797952, "energy": 25.134373, "activity_lines": [ 3.669333, 3.757934, 3.822541, 3.805482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 154725649, "typical_volume": 120015414.25, "trend": 3.795002, "fair_value": 4.311971, "relative_strength": 4.13368, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.585019, "energy": 12.480859, "activity_lines": [ 3.748, 3.770909, 3.835305, 3.813907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 231552915, "typical_volume": 127928513.85, "trend": 3.808518, "fair_value": 4.30347, "relative_strength": 3.66935, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.415733, "energy": 18.868473, "activity_lines": [ 3.865333, 3.820364, 3.864275, 3.833585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }