{ "ticker": { "uuid": "624cbfe8-44e7-4700-ac5b-4bb282ddd964", "symbol": "CAON34", "name": "Capital One Financial Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.046, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.848, "architecture_energy": 85.372, "architecture_maturity": 12.197, "architecture_confidence": 76.924, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.84, "rotation_up": 78.31, "upward_expansion": 58.74, "deceleration": 22.95, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 33.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 516.627344, 497.026729, 484.859531, 486.075904 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 550.690002, "trend_reference": 499.511017, "distance_from_trend": 0.102458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 455.007613, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.482155, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064835, "excess_performance": -0.007786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126413, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264027, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 30.095238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.003857, "balance": 30.095238, "dry_up": 0.5892, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015683, "annualized_volatility": 0.270005, "from_high_reference": -0.192608, "from_low_reference": 0.218454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 499.511017, "fair_value_reference": 455.007613, "structural_low": 451.958008, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011549, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.00999, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.210339, "worst_return": -0.202658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.11086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.128423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.458043, "worst_return": -0.266462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.128973, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 9.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.429792, "worst_return": -0.278704, "sufficient": true }, { 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470.563829, 486.028046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 468.109985, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1405.7, "trend": 512.94963, "fair_value": 449.912845, "relative_strength": -20.693891, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.551503, "energy": 60.407279, "activity_lines": [ 468.109985, 467.788818, 470.016116, 482.746188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 513.090027, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 814.9, "trend": 508.419822, "fair_value": 451.536958, "relative_strength": -12.422863, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.097313, "energy": 30.379011, "activity_lines": [ 483.103332, 476.199994, 473.898335, 482.755246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 513.090027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 259.3, "trend": 503.890015, "fair_value": 453.151773, "relative_strength": -13.506836, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": 39.291349, "energy": 58.077325, "activity_lines": [ 495.09801, 483.632364, 477.676638, 483.05655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 550.690002, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 259.25, "trend": 499.511017, "fair_value": 455.007613, "relative_strength": -3.482155, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.84787, "energy": 85.37208, "activity_lines": [ 516.627344, 497.026729, 484.859531, 486.075904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }