{ "ticker": { "uuid": "624ceb98-ca93-4cc2-a7b5-a0814f774c32", "symbol": "NZL", "name": "New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.291, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.069, "architecture_energy": 12.505, "architecture_maturity": 18.604, "architecture_confidence": 62.477, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.3, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 15.75, "deceleration": 53.42, "rotation_down": 41.67, "downward_expansion": 61.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.932667, 0.936364, 0.933745, 0.936048 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.95, "trend_reference": 0.94696, "distance_from_trend": 0.003211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.868728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.745762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028028, "excess_performance": -0.056301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003211, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004058, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.973081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50046, "relative_activity": 0.103763, "balance": 1.973081, "dry_up": 0.268377, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03661, "annualized_volatility": 0.177918, "from_high_reference": -0.134138, "from_low_reference": 0.076639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.94696, "fair_value_reference": 0.868728, "structural_low": 0.882376, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.010496, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.095239, "worst_return": -0.099999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004546, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.000775, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.119048, "worst_return": -0.081633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016306, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027215, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.062673, "worst_return": -0.142858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.223979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.935, "volume": 214117, "typical_volume": 488656.0, "trend": 0.958559, "fair_value": 0.866225, "relative_strength": -6.47705, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.030519, "energy": 10.892006, "activity_lines": [ 0.938333, 0.940733, 0.933539, 0.94046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.92, "volume": 163049, "typical_volume": 492949.6, "trend": 0.95441, "fair_value": 0.866889, "relative_strength": -8.470715, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.959531, "energy": 23.01279, "activity_lines": [ 0.930667, 0.937212, 0.932201, 0.937973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.925, "volume": 90554, "typical_volume": 489522.3, "trend": 0.950428, "fair_value": 0.867642, "relative_strength": -7.458716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.367425, "energy": 26.530089, "activity_lines": [ 0.926, 0.934455, 0.931703, 0.936075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.95, "volume": 50046, "typical_volume": 482312.55, "trend": 0.94696, "fair_value": 0.868728, "relative_strength": -5.745762, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.069235, "energy": 12.50487, "activity_lines": [ 0.932667, 0.936364, 0.933745, 0.936048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }